GW19 Player Rater Update

I've found a spare half hour so here's an update to the Player Rater model. Nothing special, but I thought I'd update the model so that those wildcarding early and wanting to use the model can do so with the latest data included. I've got a few ideas for articles to help with those tricky wildcard decisions, but I don't want to colour people's interpretations of the model too much.

As for a quick round-up of the last few games, in defence it's all been about Seamus Coleman who has scored 3 times in the last 4 games. Long term readers will know my love for Coleman and I tipped him in the very first player rater update in GW8 as he was coming off the back of 4 pts in 4 weeks! The power of models like this one is it not influenced by recent points and looks at the performance of players, not the results. Coleman is no doubt due to regress, I don't think he'll hit double figures this year, but he still possesses more goal threat than any of defender. Elsewhere and Mertesacker, Ward and Bardsley have had a good few gameweeks, all off of the back of cleansheets and bonus points, while Debuchy has converted his attacking potential into assists.

In the last update in GW16 I highlighted the much anticipated return of Theo Walcott, 2 goals and an assist since then signals his potential as one of the best midfield prospects. He may well have to wrestle that title from Eden Hazard however, he now sits a top of the midfielders in the FPL game thanks in part to Ramsey's recent injury. Two goals and 5 bonus points in the last 3 show that he shouldn't be ignored and has settled the debate over whether Hazard or Oscar is the best Chelsea midfielder to own. Yohan Cabaye has also scored twice in the last 3 GWs, and sits alongside Adam Lallana as brilliant mid-priced prospects that offer reliability of minutes and strong attacking potential. The absence of Gerrard signalled to many a dip in Liverpool's performances but quite the opposite has happened and they have been the victim of poor refereeing decisions in away losses to Man City and Chelsea. Henderson and Sterling have been the fantasy beneficiaries of this, but it remains to be seen what their prospects are when Gerrard returns as expected on New Years Day.

Finally, forwards have been a pretty sorry story. With Aguero and Rooney missing games through injury, Suarez facing tough fixtures and Lukaku not finding the net in 5 games, those that dared to be different and went with Adebayor or Dzeko have reaped the rewards. I'm still not convinced by any of these options, aside from Jay Rodriguez who earned himself 50,000 new owners off the back of a 2 goal and 1 assist display away at Cardiff. With 6 goals prior to that Rodriguez had somewhat flown under the radar, but the model did flag him as a possible Aguero replacement. He's certainly the only cheap forward I would consider for my team.

That's all for this round up, I wish you all a Happy New Year and I can't wait for transfer silly season, FA Cup 3rd Round and the FPL wildcard in January!

GW16 Player Rater Update

As always, the updated graphics can be found here.

The gameweek started and finished with 2 incredible games, Man City's 6-3 thriller against Arsenal and Tottenham's woeful 5-0 loss against Liverpool. Convincing wins by Man United and Everton and an unconvincing one by Chelsea at home to Palace gave some interest in an otherwise quite dull gameweek that saw 4 draws, and a close home win from Cardiff.

Suarez pulled in yet another massive points haul, he is quite simply one of the best players in the world right now. His expected goals per appearance figure is actually above 1 now, that sort of form puts him in the same elite group as Messi and Ronaldo. I really can't overstate just how incredible Suarez is playing at the moment and his run of form is backed up by some remarkable shooting statistics. Liverpool eventually kept a clean sheet, the week after I wrote an article on good Mignolet replacements! Tottenham didn't even manage a shot on target which, in a home game especially, is the sort of performance that sees managers get sacked.

At the Etihad and Fernandinho was the man on show, scoring his first 2 goals in a City jersey. Aguero, Negredo, Toure and Silva all added a goal each as the spoils were shared around the team. Man City are simply unstoppable at home with a "we can score 3 more than you" attitude. The much awaited return to the starting lineup of Theo Walcott saw him score 2 goals as fantasy managers across the land scramble try to figure out how to get the prolific midfielder into their team. David Silva is another who will tempt fantasy managers with his return from injury.

Everton continued a great run of form with a convincing victory over Fulham, the result probably doing an injustice to the improved West London side. Berbatov cooly slotted away another penalty and his fantasy stock is rising. The Player Rater's favourite defender Seamus Coleman scored his 3rd of the season, while Lukaku picked up yet another lucky assist, this time off his arm.

To quickly roundup the rest of the fantasy action, Danny Welbeck somehow managed 7 shots, scoring with 2 of them, as the lead striker for Man United. Peter Whittingham scored a long overdo 2nd goal and joins a list of growing ~£5m midfielders who deliver big points hauls after weeks of no attacking returns. Gary Hooper scored a spectacular goal to gain Norwich a point, but his conversion rate seems a little too high and he isn't taking enough shots for me to consider him yet. West Ham vs Sunderland and Hull vs Stoke were 0-0 stalemates and defenders from any of these teams are good and cheap options to play in home games, with the possible exception of Sunderland who didn't concede by virtue of West Ham's awful attacking play. Newcastle and Southampton shared a point, but there was little fantasy interest beside Jay Rodriguez who is having enough shots to consider as a cheap forward. Finally, Chelsea beat Palace 2-1. They were as unconvincing as ever, but are still 2nd in the table, if they finally get going they'll be a team to fear. Chamakh scored his 3rd in 3 games, but file that one under Gary Hooper.

Aguero Replacements

The biggest decision facing many fantasy managers this week is the Aguero dilemma after he picked up a calf injury in the 50th minute. The prognosis is unknown, with the Argentine awaiting a scan on Monday, but he could be out for a couple of weeks, which could be 4-5 games. With Jovetic returning from injury and Dzeko and Negredo putting in good performances this year, Pellegrini could well be cautious with Aguero who has been used heavily in all competitions to this point. Given all of that, I decided to look at possible replacements using the player rater model.

First, Suarez is a no-brainer if you don't already own him, nothing more to say here. In the next rung down then Rooney and Lukaku standout as excellent replacements, Lukaku comes in at 4m cheaper though and I'm not sure he's much of a downgrade over Rooney so he gets my tip of the 2.

With the wildcard not far away, many might be considering a differential option. Based on the last 4 matches, Berbatov seems the standout option here. Fulham's attacking play is much improved under Meulensteen and Berbatov is the pinnacle of those attacks. Throw in penalties like the 2 he's just scored and you could do worse over the winter period.

Negredo presents an interesting and obvious replacement too. He's getting a fair amount of shots, and scoring well, but his shot accuracy is poor. He's scored 2 from 3 shots on target (Last 4GWs), but his shot accuracy of 33% is a bit lower than we might expect. To continue scoring well he'll need to either improve his accuracy or take more shots. With Aguero out the latter might well happen.

Beyond this group there is very little choice. Benteke, Giroud, Soldado and Remy have played well at times this season but are out of form at the moment, each have the class to score well but there's nothing in the stats to suggest any are due a goal haul soon. Crouch is shooting surprisingly well, but whether you really want a Stoke striker in your team is a question that is hard to answer.

There is one other option I'd consider and that is Jay Rodriguez who has 13 shots, 7 on target and 3 goals in the last 4. At his price that is tremendous value and it frees up funds to invest in midfield options like Walcott, Ozil, Silva, Toure or Hazard. Deulofeu would have been in the same category but he now faces a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.