GW19 Player Rater Update

I've found a spare half hour so here's an update to the Player Rater model. Nothing special, but I thought I'd update the model so that those wildcarding early and wanting to use the model can do so with the latest data included. I've got a few ideas for articles to help with those tricky wildcard decisions, but I don't want to colour people's interpretations of the model too much.

As for a quick round-up of the last few games, in defence it's all been about Seamus Coleman who has scored 3 times in the last 4 games. Long term readers will know my love for Coleman and I tipped him in the very first player rater update in GW8 as he was coming off the back of 4 pts in 4 weeks! The power of models like this one is it not influenced by recent points and looks at the performance of players, not the results. Coleman is no doubt due to regress, I don't think he'll hit double figures this year, but he still possesses more goal threat than any of defender. Elsewhere and Mertesacker, Ward and Bardsley have had a good few gameweeks, all off of the back of cleansheets and bonus points, while Debuchy has converted his attacking potential into assists.

In the last update in GW16 I highlighted the much anticipated return of Theo Walcott, 2 goals and an assist since then signals his potential as one of the best midfield prospects. He may well have to wrestle that title from Eden Hazard however, he now sits a top of the midfielders in the FPL game thanks in part to Ramsey's recent injury. Two goals and 5 bonus points in the last 3 show that he shouldn't be ignored and has settled the debate over whether Hazard or Oscar is the best Chelsea midfielder to own. Yohan Cabaye has also scored twice in the last 3 GWs, and sits alongside Adam Lallana as brilliant mid-priced prospects that offer reliability of minutes and strong attacking potential. The absence of Gerrard signalled to many a dip in Liverpool's performances but quite the opposite has happened and they have been the victim of poor refereeing decisions in away losses to Man City and Chelsea. Henderson and Sterling have been the fantasy beneficiaries of this, but it remains to be seen what their prospects are when Gerrard returns as expected on New Years Day.

Finally, forwards have been a pretty sorry story. With Aguero and Rooney missing games through injury, Suarez facing tough fixtures and Lukaku not finding the net in 5 games, those that dared to be different and went with Adebayor or Dzeko have reaped the rewards. I'm still not convinced by any of these options, aside from Jay Rodriguez who earned himself 50,000 new owners off the back of a 2 goal and 1 assist display away at Cardiff. With 6 goals prior to that Rodriguez had somewhat flown under the radar, but the model did flag him as a possible Aguero replacement. He's certainly the only cheap forward I would consider for my team.

That's all for this round up, I wish you all a Happy New Year and I can't wait for transfer silly season, FA Cup 3rd Round and the FPL wildcard in January!

Christmas Blog Update

Just a quick update for the blog, the player rater model won't be updated over the next couple of gameweeks. With matches coming thick and fast I didn't think there was much point in updating it every few days, especially when most transfers will be short term ones with the January wildcard round the corner.

It's also unlikely they'll be any posts till the New Year, but I've got a few things lined up which could be very interesting. I'm also hoping to have the long awaited team rater section of the site up in January.

Lastly, thank you all for reading this blog! I'm still only getting a few reads, but it's great to hear feedback from those that do. I'm doing this just as a hobby, but it's brilliant to find others that are interested in football data and analytics. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and, more importantly, a happy winter fixture congestion!

GW16 Player Rater Update

As always, the updated graphics can be found here.

The gameweek started and finished with 2 incredible games, Man City's 6-3 thriller against Arsenal and Tottenham's woeful 5-0 loss against Liverpool. Convincing wins by Man United and Everton and an unconvincing one by Chelsea at home to Palace gave some interest in an otherwise quite dull gameweek that saw 4 draws, and a close home win from Cardiff.

Suarez pulled in yet another massive points haul, he is quite simply one of the best players in the world right now. His expected goals per appearance figure is actually above 1 now, that sort of form puts him in the same elite group as Messi and Ronaldo. I really can't overstate just how incredible Suarez is playing at the moment and his run of form is backed up by some remarkable shooting statistics. Liverpool eventually kept a clean sheet, the week after I wrote an article on good Mignolet replacements! Tottenham didn't even manage a shot on target which, in a home game especially, is the sort of performance that sees managers get sacked.

At the Etihad and Fernandinho was the man on show, scoring his first 2 goals in a City jersey. Aguero, Negredo, Toure and Silva all added a goal each as the spoils were shared around the team. Man City are simply unstoppable at home with a "we can score 3 more than you" attitude. The much awaited return to the starting lineup of Theo Walcott saw him score 2 goals as fantasy managers across the land scramble try to figure out how to get the prolific midfielder into their team. David Silva is another who will tempt fantasy managers with his return from injury.

Everton continued a great run of form with a convincing victory over Fulham, the result probably doing an injustice to the improved West London side. Berbatov cooly slotted away another penalty and his fantasy stock is rising. The Player Rater's favourite defender Seamus Coleman scored his 3rd of the season, while Lukaku picked up yet another lucky assist, this time off his arm.

To quickly roundup the rest of the fantasy action, Danny Welbeck somehow managed 7 shots, scoring with 2 of them, as the lead striker for Man United. Peter Whittingham scored a long overdo 2nd goal and joins a list of growing ~£5m midfielders who deliver big points hauls after weeks of no attacking returns. Gary Hooper scored a spectacular goal to gain Norwich a point, but his conversion rate seems a little too high and he isn't taking enough shots for me to consider him yet. West Ham vs Sunderland and Hull vs Stoke were 0-0 stalemates and defenders from any of these teams are good and cheap options to play in home games, with the possible exception of Sunderland who didn't concede by virtue of West Ham's awful attacking play. Newcastle and Southampton shared a point, but there was little fantasy interest beside Jay Rodriguez who is having enough shots to consider as a cheap forward. Finally, Chelsea beat Palace 2-1. They were as unconvincing as ever, but are still 2nd in the table, if they finally get going they'll be a team to fear. Chamakh scored his 3rd in 3 games, but file that one under Gary Hooper.

Aguero Replacements

The biggest decision facing many fantasy managers this week is the Aguero dilemma after he picked up a calf injury in the 50th minute. The prognosis is unknown, with the Argentine awaiting a scan on Monday, but he could be out for a couple of weeks, which could be 4-5 games. With Jovetic returning from injury and Dzeko and Negredo putting in good performances this year, Pellegrini could well be cautious with Aguero who has been used heavily in all competitions to this point. Given all of that, I decided to look at possible replacements using the player rater model.

First, Suarez is a no-brainer if you don't already own him, nothing more to say here. In the next rung down then Rooney and Lukaku standout as excellent replacements, Lukaku comes in at 4m cheaper though and I'm not sure he's much of a downgrade over Rooney so he gets my tip of the 2.

With the wildcard not far away, many might be considering a differential option. Based on the last 4 matches, Berbatov seems the standout option here. Fulham's attacking play is much improved under Meulensteen and Berbatov is the pinnacle of those attacks. Throw in penalties like the 2 he's just scored and you could do worse over the winter period.

Negredo presents an interesting and obvious replacement too. He's getting a fair amount of shots, and scoring well, but his shot accuracy is poor. He's scored 2 from 3 shots on target (Last 4GWs), but his shot accuracy of 33% is a bit lower than we might expect. To continue scoring well he'll need to either improve his accuracy or take more shots. With Aguero out the latter might well happen.

Beyond this group there is very little choice. Benteke, Giroud, Soldado and Remy have played well at times this season but are out of form at the moment, each have the class to score well but there's nothing in the stats to suggest any are due a goal haul soon. Crouch is shooting surprisingly well, but whether you really want a Stoke striker in your team is a question that is hard to answer.

There is one other option I'd consider and that is Jay Rodriguez who has 13 shots, 7 on target and 3 goals in the last 4. At his price that is tremendous value and it frees up funds to invest in midfield options like Walcott, Ozil, Silva, Toure or Hazard. Deulofeu would have been in the same category but he now faces a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

GW15 Player Rater Update

Updated graphics can be found here.

GW15 was a low scoring gameweek, the average score is inflated by the many which would have captained Suarez to get 30 points from him this week. Most of the heavily owned players failed to return points this week, with the exception of Ozil who now has 3 back-to-back double figure scores. I rated him as the best midfielder in my position review over a month ago due to him out-ranking all other midfielders for assist and goal threat.

Schurrle shone in a disappointing loss for Chelsea, scoring 2 goals and picking up maximum bonus. He would be a brilliant fantasy option if assured of starts, unfortunately that's not likely to happen any time soon. Shock clean sheets for Newcastle and Norwich in tough away matches and clean sheets for cheap defenders for Crystal Palace and Fulham meant their probably weren't many clean sheets around this week. A quick word on Palace, they are probably the best budget defence at the moment and have great defensive stats. That's before you even factor in Pulis and his focus on keeping clean sheets, so they are a great bet to pick up clean sheets in home games this year.

Another other interesting point from midfield this week is the goal from Paulinho which has been long overdue. I questioned just last week whether the model needed to be refined to accomodate for his poor shot quality, but perhaps this is the start of a good run from the Brazilian. I like him as a midfield option in a mid-price bracket with few alternatives.

And I couldn't fail to comment on a goal, assist and 3 bonus points from Leroy Fer this week which announced him to the wider FPL community. He was the header of my Midfield Differential article and has been the main (and only) success from my tips. Nathan Redmond supplied the assist for his goal, and if you were to twist my arm I'd recommend Redmond over Fer if you were looking at a Norwich midfielder, which would be wise given their kind fixtures.

I must also given special mention to Crouch and Berbatov who scored this weekend and ensured I didn't look completely mad for highlighting their potential last week. I still wouldn't suggest you put either in your team unless you really want a massive differential and like to diverge from the crowd.

Which European Team Creates and Limits the Most Shots?

Following on from my first article looking at shot data from the Top 5 European leagues using data from WhoScored, I decided to take a lot at the defensive and attacking sides of shots. Much inspired by the graphics of the Ben Mayhew which most of you have probably seen, I also thank Ben for his courtesy in allowing me to post this graphics.

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Again, I want to allow you, the reader, draw your own conclusion but I thought I'd pick out a couple of teams worthy of note.

Fulham are very, very poor at both creating shots and stopping the opposition from shooting, but were even worse 2 games ago. The sacking of Martin Jol was probably justified by Fulham's performances, which led them to be one of the worst teams in Europe according to this model. The appointment of Rene Meulensteen also seems a good one, especially on the offensive end, with Fulham averaging an astonishing 18.5 shots per game since he has been in charge. That's double their average of all games so far and puts them on par with the likes of Bayern and Dortmund. These have been 2 home games, but they've been against a great defence in Spurs and a good one in Aston Villa. The quality in the squad that saw them finish 12th last year suggests they have the potential to turn things around, but there is a lot to be worked on.

Unsurprisingly few teams are elite in one area but poor in another. Hamburg are the only team who seem to be gung-ho all out attack and have scored as many as Schalke despite being 7 places below them in the table. This is likely in part due to the shooting of Pierre-Michel Lasogga who is averaging 3 shots per game, 3rd most in the Bundesliga.

Nantes are alone in the ' Top Defence, Poor Attack' section, but it is Lille that seem the most defensive team in Europe. Currently sitting 3rd in Ligue 1, Lille have only managed to score 18 goals (which places them 12th in Ligue 1), but have an impressive defensive record, conceding just 5 in 17 games. I don't watch Ligue 1 so can't give an explanation for this, but WhoScored's player ratings suggest Idrissa Gueye should receive much credit as a holding defensive midfielder. His stats suggests he plays the Makelele role superbly, and he might be one to look at for in future transfer windows (hint hint David Moyes). If anyone reading this does know more about Gueye I'd love to hear about it.

In the premier league and there's a small group of Man City, Chelsea and Tottenham who lead the league in taking shots and limiting to opposition in shooting. A more detailed piece of analysis might show Tottenham's shots are largely from long range, leaving Man City and Chelsea as the Top 2. Like many others these are the two teams I expect to ultimately fight it out for the title. Arsenal much more middling and I'll be bold and suggest they'll finish outside the Top 3.

With 5 straight wins you don't need a graphic to tell you Juventus are quite good and there's no reason to bet against them in Serie A. What will be interesting is whether they can translate their league dominance into top European performances. They are yet to qualify from Group B, needing a point in their final away game against Juventus, and their absence from the knockout stage would be a loss to the competition.

In La Liga we see Real Madrid stand far above anyone else in Europe for shots per game, not at all surprising given the shooting abilities of Ronaldo and Bale. They are only average across Europe for stopping the opponent having shots, but who needs clean sheets when you average nearly 3 goals per game.

A Look at Keeper Options in FPL

With just 2 clean sheets in today's games and Mignolet's owners who make up 39.2% of the game looking to move on the Belgian ahead of a nightmareish run of 4 fixtures I thought I'd have a look at goalkeeping options from now till the January wildcard. Below is the table I'll be using, the filters below it will help you decide who you want in your team. An explanation of the criteria is given below.

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Criteria Explanations

1. Backup Keepers - First up I looked at which keeper might soon lose his place and to who. Pantillimon seems first choice at the moment, but were not sure if it'll last. Boruc will come straight in when fit, as will Foster. Westwood and Vorm have both been first choice, but Mannone and Tremmel have rotated with them at times this year.

2. Defender Options - I've picked out some defenders that come with some attacking potential that might be a better way to cover clean sheets for that team. Evra and Walker are perfect examples of players who carry significant attacking threat to make them worth the extra money, and thus making De Gea and Lloris less attractive as keeper options. (Note, there may also be defenders worth considering that have a potential for bonus points, such as Jagielka at Everton or Chico Flores at Swansea)

3. Next 6 Fixture Ratings - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the next 6 fixtures for each team for ease. I used the excellent Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker to judge this, if you're not already a member I highly recommend it!

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Form) - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the team for strength of their defense over the last 6 games only (excluding today's games). This is judged on underlying defensive stats only, and not actual goals conceded or clean sheet records. It looks at shots and shot position, quality of shot, chances created and the location of those chances, and crosses. Each team is then rated in each category according to every other team. For example, Man City have conceded just 63 shots inside the box all season, the lowest of any team so are assigned the highest rating for shots inside the box. Each category rating is then summed up to give a rating for each team. I then grouped ratings into 5 groups to make it easier to digest.

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Season) - Same as above but for all games over the season instead.

5. Total - The sum of the 3 ratings.

Process of Elimination

You can use the viz in anyway you want, but I think the best way in mind to establish a shortlist is to work by elimination. Here's my thought process, yours may differ.

First Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record for the season.

• Exclude Marshall, Stekelenberg, Ruddy, Westwood, Guzan, Speroni, McGregor, Begovic.

Second Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record over the last 6 games.

• Exclude Krul, Myhill

Third Round: Elimiante all teams with poor upcoming fixtures.

• Exclude Szczesny, Pantillimon, Mignolet, Vorm, Gazzaniga

The Shortlist:

• Cech, Howard, De Gea, Lloris, Jaaskelainen.

From there your decision comes down to your time preferences (Jaaskelainen's best fixtures only come after a Man Utd and Arsenal back-to-back), other defenders you already own (if you have Terry you might pass on Cech) and of course the budget you have available.

If you disagree with any of these criteria then let me know! I'm open to change the ratings if you can convince me.

Form Player Rater - Who Have Been the Top Performers Over the Last 6 Gameweeks?

I thought I'd have quick look at the Player Rater model which only includes data from the last 6 gameweeks. The graphics haven't got as many options as usual, and they show totals rather than adjusting for appearances/minutes.

Learn About Tableau

Learn About Tableau

At the very top and Suarez is a clear run away, he isn't just in a purple patch, the model is expecting him to score just under a goal every game. Aguero is his closest rival, but still some way off. There's no sign of Ramsey's form stopping, he is ranked 3rd from the last 6GWs. Lukaku just edges Rooney, which is something to consider given Rooney's suspension this week.

In midfield, Coutinho, Hazard and Ozil are the clear elite midfielders of choice. Mirallas looks an excellent mid-price option, as does Lallana. While Downing and Shelvey top the cheap midfield options. The best budget option is Redmond, and by some margin.

Yaya Toure, Gerrard, Brunt, Navas, Nasri and Morrison lead a list of players who have scored well, but do not quite have the stats to back it, be very wary of bringing in any of these options off the back of recent points scoring. On the converse the Tottenham duo of Townsend and Paulinho continue to underperform their stats, I suspect this is a problem with the model and will seek to improve it so it doesn't rate the likes of Townsend's long range shots so highly. Downing has also been unlucky to not have more points given his stats and I have no problem backing him as a good pick up.

There's few attacking defensive options, but Walker's 2 assists have not been unjustified given his stats, while Evra, Vertonghen and Debuchy have been typically attack minded. Zabaleta's points returns are less backed up by his underlying stats though.

Finally, there are 3 huge surprises thrown up by the model: Crouch, Ameobi and Berbatov. All 3 rank above Giroud, Remy and even Negredo for attacking stats over the last 6 gameweeks, but get any of them for your team at your own peril!

Player Rater GW14 Update

Updated graphics can be found here.

Where to start, there's an awful lot to discuss (after I lamented on Monday there wasn't much going on!), but unfortunately I don't have time to cover everything. There were some huge scorers this week, and triple digit FPL scores were common. Suarez, Hazard, Aguero, Ramsey, Ozil and Coutinho all had incredible games in terms of attacking involvement. In terms of differentials, Berbatov seemed a new man following the departure of Jol, and Rodriguez gave use yet another option to consider from a great Southampton side. Shelvey had a brilliant gameweek, he has been highly rated by the player rater model (currently ranked 11th for midfielders when adjusted by appearances) but I've been reluctant to tip him, perhaps I should trust the model more.

Going back again to my midfield differential article, and 3 of the top picks have flopped, Fer has been disappointing, Ward-Prowse was withdrawn early after starting and Tonev has played 20minutes in the last 2 games. Redmond did deliver an assist and is well worth considering until the January wildcard. The player I wanted to highlight most though is Downing, who was the top player in a poor West Ham team in Tuesday. He had a goal wrongly disallowed, created a number of chances, and also has a share of set-pieces. I warned again Ravel Morrison who now sits out the next game serving his suspension, if your looking for a West Ham midfielder at the moment then Downing is the best choice.

That's all for now, my closing remark is a quick tip to keep in mind GW16 fixtures when making transfers this week. Man City play Arsenal and Tottenham play Liverpool, and there is a big fixture swing with Arsenal and Liverpool facing a tough Christmas period, and fixtures easing considerably for Man United and Everton. Keep all that in mind with this weeks transfers!

Which European League Has The Most Shots on Target?

With so little fantasy debates to be had at the moment, with most decisions revolving around getting an XI who will start and some good bench options if needed, I decided to have a quick look at something a little different. To be honest, I mainly just wanted to test out the new box and whisker plots that are available in the new version of tableau 8.1.

I decided to use data from WhoScored and look at attacking stats from the top 5 leagues in Europe (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) and since we all know the importance of shots on target as an indicator of attacking performance I choose to look at this.

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A quick explanation for the uninitiated (or those who have erased their memories of high school maths), each column is a league, and each data point is a team from within that league, along the y-axis we have Shots on Target per Game. The box and whisker plot itself is made up of 5 points, the minimum which marks the lowest of the group (in this case each league) and the maximum marking the highest. The median is also marked, which is the midpoint of the data, and the 'box' is constructed from the lower quartile to the upper quartile, such that 50% of the data is within the box. This is very useful for seeing the distribution of teams within a league and for comparing leagues. Graphically, the different points marked are:

Comments on the Box Plot

I don't want to indulge in a huge piece of analysis, and would rather you make up your own mind about what can be taken from the graphic, but here's a few comments:

• The Bundesliga has the highest median shots on target with 4.9. So an average game would see 9.8 shots on target, with an expected number of goals of over 3 per game. Does this make the Bundesliga the best league? Well, we cannot answer that, but it may be the most exciting league if you believe more goals leads to a more exciting game.
• Real Madrid are likely to score the most goals across the top 5 leagues, while Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester City and PSG top the charts in their respective leagues. No surprises here, apart from the fact that Bayern don't top the Bundesliga, their impressive record can be attributed to their defensive strength however.
• Sunderland are the worst attacking team, and by some way. According to my model they might be lucky to score 30 this season in the league, on current form at least. Cardiff, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Hull don't fare much better with only 2.8 shots on target per game. These 5 teams are worse than any team across the 5 leagues with the exception of Ajaccio. The belief that the English league has strength in depth certainly doesn't hold on the offensive side of the game.
• La Liga is positively skewed more than any other league, which we'd expect with 3 brilliant teams in Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. This is at least in part to the way TV revenue is distributed in the Spanish league. Serie A is similarly skewed, but if we remove Juventus' supreme attack we actually see a cluster of good but not great attacking teams.
• The Bundesliga is also positively skewed by the presence of 3 stand out teams. It's certainly true that there is greater parity in the Bundesliga once you remove these teams though, at least from an attacking standpoint.
• The Premier League seems to be the most evenly distributed league, there are no run away teams and no teams falling far behind. There is also no cluster in the middle like we see with the Bundesliga, or towards the bottom as La Liga shows. Again, TV revenues likely play a part here, with the distribution of them being much more even across all teams than in other leagues. Does this mean the Premier League is more competitive? I'll leave that one open to debate.

If this post proves popular there's a few stats that throw up interesting box and whisker plots. There's some interesting stuff on the defensive end as well.

Update to the Player Rater Model

Also, there's a slight change to the expected points table. In selecting teams you now make your selections and click 'Apply' to apply that filter. This should be a lot quicker when you want to select or deselect a group of teams as you no longer have to wait for the viz to update with every single selection made.

Player Rater GW13 Update

Just a quick update today due to the midweek games this week. A reminder here that the deadline is 19:30 on Tuesday 3rd Dec.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

One of the early criticisms of the model was that it rated Deulofeu very highly, well after Saturday's performance it was probably right to. The on-loan Barcelona forward put in a stunning display of his talents, with 5 shots, 3 on target and 1 created chance that led to an assist. It's too early to say he's a fantasy option but he belongs on the 'monitor' list.

The Suarez and Aguero strikeforce finally failed this week, but we can't expect returns from them every week. Suarez managed 5 shots and Aguero 6, no other player managed more shots so strap down those jerky knees! Aguero had an astonishing 18 penalty box touches, so don't consider the Aguero>Negredo move yet.

The ever consistent Rooney scored twice at White Hart Lane and is quickly becoming the standout 3rd forward of choice, it makes for an expensive front-line though, so Remy and Lukaku are great alternatives. Rooney moves into 3rd place in the Expected Attacking Points per Appearance table. Ozil repaid those that showed faith in him with 2 assists and Ramsey continued his form with another 2 goals. Fantasy favourite and blog favourite Seamus Coleman scored his 2nd of the season and is now the top point scoring Everton defender, followers of the model will not be surprised to see him score again. Aside from this group there was little fantasy action of note, with many points coming from unlikely sources such as Oviedo who filled in at LB for the injured Baines, and Hooper who may have to single handedly score all of Norwich's goals this season.

Review of Midfield Differentials

In the interests of accountability I thought I'd look at how the midfield differentials I tipped in my popular article last week performed in this weekends games. The success of the suggestions cannot be judged over one game, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how each got on:

• Leroy Fer (3), Nathan Redmond (3) - A disappointing attacking performance from Fer was a shame, but 3 pointers is not too be sniffed at with the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Coutinho returning less. Redmond was much more impressive with 3 shots and 1 on target. If you can stomach rotation when Snodgrass and Pilkington return then Redmond is a nice and cheap option.
• Ward-Prowse (2) - A quiet performance before being withdrawn on 62 minutes. He now has 2 home games, which I highlighted as the games in which he carries more threat.
• Downing (6) - This is more like it, an assist this week is representative of what you can expect from Downing, 3 shots and 4 chances created show his involvement in West Ham's attack.
• Tonev (1) - The return of Agbonlahor and Weimann saw Tonev drop to the bench, only making a 20 minute bench appearance where his only action of note was a long range effort on target. Villa are struggling for goals at the moment and that might see Lambert mix up his attackers, whether that includes Tonev remains to be seen.
• Walters (1), Adams (1) - Away at Goodison Park was always going to be a tough game, so don't read much into the two poor performances of these two this weekend. Walters did manager a shot on target from within the box, but that was it.
• Barkley (0), Morrison (4), Januzaj (0). Barkley and Januzaj didn't make an appearance this week and that should signal that anyone holding them should look to sell. Morrison was benched as well, but made an impressive impact creating 3 chances in just 14 minute, including an assist for Joe Cole's goal after practically walking through a dejected Fulham defence.

I also overlooked Sissoko who occupies a similar space in the model to Downing, he scored a wordly this week and is a reliable option. Cabaye still provides more threat as coverage for the Newcastle midfield that has somehow sneaked in 6th place.

Under the Radar: In Form Midfield Differentials

Seeing as the forward slots are pretty much a no brainer at the moment (select Aguero and Suarez, then one from Rooney, Remy, Giroud, Lukaku or even Sturridge, Negredo or Lambert) I thought I'd have another look at midfield options, in particular focusing on a couple of names who could prove worthy differentials. I've looked at players who are in form (only considering the last 4 GWs), cheap, and have very low ownership (under 1%).

Below is a graphic of the Player Rater model, but only looking at data from the last 4 GWs. Players must have played in 3 games to qualify, and carry at least some goal and assist threat. I then have a more detailed look at some select names.

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Leroy Fer

I gave a mention to Fer a couple of weeks ago, but never expected two goals in two games! He has gone completely under the radar but his performances the last 4 GWs are worthy of note. This one caught me a bit by surprise but on every criteria I looked at Leroy Fer's name kept popping up. Here's a quick summary of Fer's potential:

• Nailed on - over a tricky winter fixture list with much rotation it helps to have someone reliable in your teams, at least to guarantee you 2 points every week. Fer has played every game and every minute of every game, they don't come more nailed on.
• Solid Stats - his stats aren't incredible, let's not get carried away, but they are reliable and consistent. More importantly they have been improving the last few weeks which suggests he is either settling in, or changing his role within the team.
• Better at Home - He's averaging 2.6 shots and 2 key passes per game at home, but only 0.8 shots and 0.5 key passes away (source: WhoScored). It might be a negative that his away performances haven't been so strong, but if your looking to rotate him with another midfielder it's nice to know his best performances have been in home games, so there's less worry that your going to miss his points because you bench him for away games.
• Favourable fixtures - Norwich probably have the most favourable fixtures over the next 6 GWs. Only an away game against Liverpool is cause for concern, with home games versus Palace, Swansea and Fulham around away trips to WBA and Sunderland there is potential for Norwich to pick up points and turn their season around. Fer is likely to be play a crucial part in this.

This is a stats blog afterall, so I best look at some data for Fer. Squawka  provides a good look at his shot data, we see his accuracy of 60% is good, as we know shots on target matter. This high accuracy is likely due to taking most of his shots from within the box, which is another encouraging sign. He isn't the most creative player, with only 13 key passes all season (just over 1 a game), but Squawka again shows us these chances are being created in central positions, suggesting they should be converted at a higher rate.

So there you have it, my hot tip at the moment is Leroy Fer, and with a home game against Palace next, what better time to bring him in? He's not going to pull up trees, but he guarantees you 2 points every game and could contribute a couple of goals and assists over the winter period.

If your short on cash, or feel Fer is a little overpriced (which is a fair comment) then Redmond is another option. With Snodgrass and Pilkington out for the medium term he looks nailed on and could provide a good differential against Barkley or Morrison.

Ward-Prowse

Southampton's fixtures would be enough to put anyone off buying their players at the moment, but in James Ward-Prowse there's a midfielder that comes in very cheap and offers a strong mix of starts, attacking threat and even set-pieces. JWP carries almost no goal threat, with just 2 shots in 4 games, but has tremendous assist potential, ranking only 2nd to Nasri over the last 4GWs. These chances are coming from either the right, or just outside the box, as shown on Squawka, he's created 24 chances this season, with 14 of those coming in the last 4. 117 touches in the final third put him second only to Lallana for involvement in Southamptons attack.

The worry here is that Pochettino could rest him for a run like he did Gameweeks 4-8 without much rhyme or reason, but seeing as we can't predict that we can only assume he's set to continue his recent run of starts. He's another who performs best in home games, so pairing him with someone who rotates with Southampton (Norwich do, hint hint!) could prove a good strategy.

Downing

Another big surprise is Stewart Downing who is providing a good goal and assist threat, on par with Mirallas and even Oscar over the last few weeks, which is surprising given those two players big points returns last week. His goal threat is particular surprising, with 8 shots and 3 on target matching Oscar exactly over the last 4 GWs. His 20 touches in the penalty box better Oscar by 1 as well!

Downing starts have been much less reliable and he is a definite rotation risk. However he is probably West Ham's best player on current form (which isn't saying much) and offers a good route to the Hammers kind fixtures of Fulham, Palace and Sunderland in the next 4. Playing out wide without a recognised striker in the team has allowed Downing the opportunity to run at the defence, and make runs in behind.

There's no doubting that Downing's main threat is his creativity, creating 20 chances so far this season, most of which from crosses at the byline. Without Carroll in the team these crosses are probably going to waste, but with results going against him, Allardyce may start one of Petric or Cole upfront as a striker this weekend and target Fulham's shaky defence.

Tonev

After being a preseason 5th midfielder favourite Tonev has proved frustrating for his owners, but has started the 3 of the previous 4 and could be set for a run in the team. This one is a huge risk (not least for starts), but playing in behind the striker he offers good attacking potential in a team with another kind run of winter fixtures. Benteke's production has slowed surprisingly quickly since his injury and there's few other options.

He had 3 shots, all on target, in the Monday night Birmingham derby, unfortunately all were from range and not central, as can be seen on StatsZone and his shot accuracy over the season has been poor. Regardless of the quality of shot, he comes with a very enticing 4.3m price tag, but it'd take some balls to take a punt on him.

Bacuna has earned plaudits for his freekicks, but beyond set-pieces I don't think he offers enough to be considered, without a single shot on goal in his last match. Has also been playing at RWB, which should be enough to put you off at the moment.

Walters

By now you probably think I'm mad, and your probably right. But former fantasy favourite Walters still offers security of starts, some goal threat and is still likely on penalties. With Arnautovic out this week he could start in behind the striker, and while away at Everton is a tough fixture he has averaged 1.7 shots and 1 key pass per game in all away games this season.

He's also been played out wide right this season, and with Everton having no obvious replacement for Baines, Mark Hughes could look to exploit that area. Walters has created 9 chances this season, 3 from the right, and 5 within the penalty box.

Charlie Adams is an alternative, and the former fantasy hot shot does have some credentials, again his security of starts is a big enough worry to not consider him.

The Bad

I wanted to give a quick highlight to some cheap midfield options that might be worth avoiding. Ross
Barkley only just makes it on to the charts, having had jut 1 shot on target and created 1 chance in the last 4 games his early season form has completely disappeared. This weeks fixture is followed by tough matches against Man Utd. and Arsenal, so I wouldn't be looking to bring in Barkley any time soon.

Another popular option that is also struggling is Ravel Morrison who actually ranks behind Scott Parker in the player rater model! There is no doubting his abilities and potential, but past point scoring is perhaps not indicative of future points scoring in this case. Just 2 shots on target and 1 chance created suggests his suitors may be disappointed.

Januzaj has similar low involvement, just 3 touches in the penalty box in the last 4 games is disappointing and suggests he isn't worth holding given his rotation risk which will become increasingly frustrating over the winter period. In his favour he has had 72 touches which is impressive, but his actions with the ball suggest points aren't likely to come his way. If you caught his price rises then now is probably a good time to cash in.

Conclusion

There you go, five options who are completely off the radar but may well pick up points soon. The only player among them I would seriously recommend targeting at the moment is Leroy Fer though. Don't expect big returns, but if you want some reliability and at least a small chance of points than he is a good option at the moment.

Player Rater GW12 Update

Apologies for not bringing any posts over the international break, a lot of things came up that meant I wasn't able to dedicate the time I needed to it, but they are still in the works. I'm sorry this is coming late in the week as well. Hopefully I'll have something tomorrow on some obscure midfield options.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

Suarez, essential. Aguero, essential. Forwards in FPL are a gimmie at the moment, you can't go too far wrong. Add in Rooney (who is showing tremendous consistency), Sturridge, Giroud, Remy or Lukaku as your 3rd striker and your set. If you fancy a differential then Lambert or Benteke are also good options. This state of affairs hasn't changed in weeks and hopefully my post back then helped some to get the two big hitters in. Only 3 slots for forwards is frustrating for managers but who said this game was supposed to be fun?

The biggest performance of note among strikers was courtesy of Lukaku, who made his sellers last week look foolish with a performance worthy of his beastly reputation. He could have scored more if not for an outstanding display by Mignolet in goal. Lukaku has been blowing hot and cold, but we can perhaps forgive him a little inconsistency at his age. Two tough games follow a favourable one this week, but after that he seems a great option to pick up and leave in your team alongside captains incredible Suarez and Aguero.

In midfield and I wanted to gloat again after tipping Coutinho for returns, though his goal was in contrast to a quiet performance from the Brazilian. Over the winter period his security of starts might see him be a good option compared to the rotation risks of Chelsea and Man City midfielders. Staying with the Merseyside derby and Mirallas scored and assisted to remind us of his midfield credentials, if you go without Lukaku than he can provide suitable coverage for Everton's attack.

Elsewhere and James Ward-Prowse started and finished his 4th consecutive game and looks an incredible option at his price, offering attacking threat and some set-pieces only Southampton's fixture list puts me off here. Brady was back starting but withdrawn at half-time, his fitness problem is ongoing and Hull's fixtures aren't enticing, making a switch an option if transfers are a luxury for you this week. Elsewhere in midfield and Leroy Fer scored a 2nd in 2 weeks, more on him to come. Cabaye earned an assist in the same game.

In the Etihad thrashing Navas returned a monster haul but I wouldn't look at getting him in while Aguero is in the form of his life. Lampard also scored twice but again I wouldn't rush towards him given Oscar and Hazard are performing very well and giving returns in the same match.

In defence and Mertesacker and Evra earned attacking returns and points, but there's little to note from the player rater model. I'd keep an eye on Azpillicueta if he continues to get starts in a good Chelsea defence.

Player Rater GW11 Update

As always I've updated the graphics to include the GW11 data, you can find them here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

There will be little change in the model's ratings from now on, so you can check what I wrote last week to see which players stand out at the moment. In fact, it's unlikely that the model ratings will change week to week now, so I've been thinking about including a 'form' chart which only looks at the last 6 matches. What do people think about this?

As for a short round up, I wanted to give a highlight to Coutinho this week who, despite not scoring any FPL points, had a monstrous performance this weekend. He managed 9 shots and 4 on target (to put that in context, Lukaku has managed 8 and 4 over his last 4 games!). He's currently under-performing the model, but as Chris Glover pointed out, players don't do this for long, and I he is likely to explode soon. A Merseyside derby isn't likely to be the best game for him, but after the next game Liverpool's fixtures are very appealing and they don't face the fixture congestion that teams in Europe do.

Elsewhere, Suarez extended his dominance and if anyone is essential, he is. The likes of Hazard, Lallana, Sessegnon and Snodgrass managed good points hauls this week, all of whom were highlighted in last weeks Midfield Round-up. I was also pleased to see Leroy Fer score his first goal this week after tipping him as a good all-round differential option.

Up front and Remy staked yet another claim to be considered in our frontlines and is probably the best <9.0m striker aside from Lambert who seems to have escaped attention despite two assists and a goal against Hull, tough fixtures make him a difficult buy at the moment though.

Christian Eriksen also enjoyed a good game, but failed to turn his production into points this week, I still fancy he will eventually become the stand-out option in the Spurs midfield. His next two are against the Manchester clubs though so I think he'll be one to monitor rather than buy at the moment.

Edit: I'm not alone in thinking Eriksen will be a pivotal player for Tottenham, Ted Knutson over at Statsbomb has written a superb piece on his weekend performance which you can find here.

FPL Position Review: Midfield

Michu out. Silva out. Hazard dropped. Big hitters misfiring. Budget options faltering. Choosing a midfield in FPL continues to be a thankless task. So following a short review of possible Michu replacements I decided to have a more in-depth look at which midfielders stand out according to the Player Rater model. Below are the two PR model graphics, filtered to show the most relevant midfield options.

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I chose Mesut Ozil as the header picture as he is somehow under the radar now, his away performances have been below par, but his FPL pedigree should not be in question. He is above all other fit midfielders for goal threat and creativity. Silva beats him for expected assists and Walcott for expected goals, but they are both out for this weekend at least. It's understandable that many don't want to double on Arsenal midfielders with Ramsey becoming almost essential, and an away fixture against Man Utd isn't the perfect week to bring him in. However Ozil is top draw and I'd expect him to be among the Top 5 midfielders come the end of the season.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal midfield and Ramsey is a serious option, he isn't a midguided bandwagon, he ranks 3rd for Expected Goals per Appearance and contributes enough creatively to make him a very solid option. If you haven't already got him then it's time to swallow your pride and do so. Cazorla is a good alternative, but hasn't shown himself to be worth the extra £2.4m over Ramsey.

The Chelsea midfield is as attractive and dangerous as ever to own. Mourinho has a wealth of options while fantasy players really have just two, Hazard or Oscar. The model suggests Hazard is a far better option, so I should be recommending him right? I would, had he not been dropped for the CL game following a missed training session, Mourinho has said he's back in the squad but his game time is in even more doubt than usual. I think the Chelsea midfield might be worth avoiding, but short term I'd go for Oscar if you were set on owning one. Schurrle and Willian make good punts if you think they might start, but there's not enough data on them yet for the model to give a good review.

Next up you might consider the Liverpool midfield for their favourable run of fixtures, the decision here is Gerrard or Coutinho. The model favours Gerrard slightly due to security of minutes, his set-pieces are also a positive. However the two are close and the choice between them should depend on your preferences as a fantasy player. If you want someone who is reliable and a good pick for the long-term then England's golden man is your pick, if you want a bit of a differential with the potential for big points then pick up the Brazilian boy wonder.

Moving onto another rotation nightmare in Tottenham's midfield, which I've already looked at here, and little has changed. Townsend remains a good option but may be rotated more in the future, Paulinho has some good stats and security of starts and minutes but isn't as hotly tipped by the model as by other fantasy sites, and other options are a huge rotation headache. My prediction is that in the coming weeks AVB will continue to experiment to find a way to score and that'll see the quality of Eriksen and Lamela secure starting spots and in turn become viable fantasy options. You heard it here first.

In Man City's midfield Silva is the obvious choice but since he is injured the selection yet again comes down to two players, Yaya Toure and Nasri. This mirrors the Gerrard/Coutinho situation almost exactly (with Nasri more likely to be dropped long term). With a full 90 minutes Nasri could prove a very good pick and short term is a nice transfer.

The Suarez/Aguero Plan

Moving away from the top end price bracket and if your looking to transfer out one of your injured or under-performing heavy hitting midfielders then you might be considering a downgrade to allow you some money to invest in the elite strike-force of Suarez and Aguero. Below are some options that'll save you some money.

First up, and there is a nice group of mid-priced options who have the reliability of minutes with the potential for big points scoring. Lallana, Cabaye, Sissoko, Mirallas, Snodgrass, Sessegnon, Amalfitano and Arnautovic make a small group of good fantasy options. I've little to say here other than that you can't go too far wrong with picking up one of these, price, fixtures and your teams rotation should guide your decision here.

The budget bracket is an interesting one as we have seen points scoring from the Barkley, Morrison, Ward-Prowse and Januzaj and each provide good attacking threat for their prices. There's always a question mark over their minutes, but for <£5.0m you can't ask for too much, if you want to free funds for Aguero or Suarez then these four are good options.

If you want to really look beyond the obvious then the model throws up some interesting differentials. Shelvey carries a fair goal threat, as does Redmond, while Downing gives your side some assist potential and Leroy Fer a little of both.

Long term there is one man I, and everyone else, is waiting for: Theo Walcott. Your Michu/Silva/Hazard replacement may well be a short term decision with Walcott's imminent return sure to turn fantasy heads, especially if he explodes onto the scene playing upfront while a jaded Giroud is given a much needed rest.

Blog Notes

Over the international break I'll hope to have a post reviewing how the model does for the 2012/13 season, and hopefully another on a model to explain clean sheets, though I'm having troubles sourcing data at the moment.

Player Rater GW10 Update

After an odd gameweek with a Begovic goal and a Rangel save you can find the updated model graphics here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

This gameweek was all about Aguero. The model didn't rate his performance too well, with 9 shots and only 1 on target showing poor accuracy, but he had double the touches in the box of any other player this week! Suarez had no shots on target against Arsenal and so falls slightly back to normality, but him and Aguero still top the ratings. RVP proved me wrong, again, but with Aguero and Rooney also delivering points for less of your precious FPL cash they remain better options. Elsewhere, and a shock Newcastle win was accompanied by a great performance by Remy. He moves into the list of forwards worth owning alongside Lukaku who is currently blowing very hot and cold. The Belgian's last 2 home matches against Hull and Tottenham have seen him manage just 1 shot. His last away performance against Villa saw 6 shots and 3 on target though, and with a trip to Palace there's no reason to panic yet.

In midfield it's a familiar low-scoring story. Ozil impressed, Ramsey rolls on, Paulinho disappointed with just 1 shot (his stats are still inflated by a couple of great games), Townsend continues to top the shot charts but with only low quality chances and little else is happening. Coutinho was very impressive on his return from injury and could be on for a good run of form. In Man City's win over Norwich Silva was impressive, as was a certain Ivorian. Here's a quote from my over and under-performers post:

"Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season..."

So maybe he will.

There's little change at the back and very few attacking options. Tottenham's defence is absolutely top draw though, only allowing 1 shot on target away at Everton this week. I'd recommend heading over to FFScout to read an excellent post by @FFScout_Andy on the new BPS system, you can find the first here, but you will need to be a member. It seems this year BPS will play a huge part in defender scoring, picking up 1 or 2 bonus points every clean sheet could prove more lucrative than a handful of assists or a few goals over the course of the season.

The Michu Dilemma?

Following another blank in the Welsh derby and an injury that'll likely see him out of action for a few games (go follow @physioroom if your not already for great updates about player's fitness and injuries) there's going to be an exodus for Michu owners this gameweek. I'd like to write a full post on good midfield options but I imagine many will want to dump Michu tonight with the price fall so I'll write a quick round-up instead.

In the high price bracket it's a shame Walcott is still out as he'd be a perfect replacement. Otherwise I'd target Silva, Ozil, Hazard/Oscar or even Yaya Toure. Coutinho had a great return from injury and with Fulham at home he makes for a very nice selection at a cheaper price, Gerrard has the same nice fixture and offers more security. Cazorla offers a differential option as well, but there are better players in his price bracket. In the mid price bracket there's a few reliable options in Ramsey (if you don't already own him), Paulinho and Lallana. Cabaye also had a good game and might be worth a punt, while Mirallas has a tasty fixture against Crystal Palace this week. If you want to go budget to allow you to invest upfront then Townsend, Amalfitano and Arnautovic look the best budget options, while Shelvey is a punt that might work out with Swansea's nice run of fixtures over the next 6.

Please do note these are not projections, just a list of the midfielders who are rated highly by the model. Please also look at form, fixtures, rotation issues and injury worries when making your decision. Personally I think I'm switching for Silva or Coutinho. Silva probably has a better long term outlook, but Coutinho is cheaper, is under the radar (so could be a differential in mini-leagues) and offers a nice fixture this week.

Plater Rater Model Update - Per Appearance Option

I received some good feedback saying that the model isn't intuitively useful because certain players such as Deulofeu stand out due to high production in a small number of minutes. In the last update I discussed whether it would be useful to multiply the players 'Per Minute' data by the number of average minutes they played to rectify this. The hope was that this would give an idea of a what we expect from each player in an average match. I completely overlooked the fact that this would be equivalent to simply adjusting for appearances!

Anyway, the model is now updated so that you can select whether you want to view the data adjusted for minutes (total expectations divided by total minutes played) or by appearances (total expectations divided by appearances). Simply hit the dropdown titled 'Choose Adjustment'. I also made a small adjustment to the Expected Points graphic where the colour represents the total expected points over the season.

Head to the Player Rater tab to see the updated graphics.

Both measures have their merits. 'Per Minute' is useful for comparing players on a like to like basis, and is especially handy if you think a player is due 90 minutes (say if Man City were left with Dzeko as their only striker). But, FPL is played on a Per Game basis, and for general comparisons and rankings it makes more sense to use the 'Per Appearance' adjustment.

This adjustment is also more intuitive for how many points we might expect from a player from an average game. For example Suarez has an expected 6 points from goals, assists and bonus! That is an astonishing figure. With this adjustment Suarez really stands apart from Aguero because he plays every minute of the game, I wouldn't say any player in FPL is essential, but Suarez is pretty close.

One caveat using the 'Per Appearance' adjustment: it's still early in the season, so one or two bench appearances greatly affect the data. For example, Lukaku's made a couple of sub appearances while at Chelsea, so his average game time is 63 minutes, but he's played 90-81-67-90 in his last 4 for Everton and it seems he'll play the majority of the games he starts in.

Biggests Movers from 'Per Minute' to 'Per Appearance'

I thought I'd pick out some of the notable movements from using appearances rather than minutes to adjust players data.

Risers (rate better when adjusted for appearances)

• Defenders - Coleman, Baines, Ivanovic, Chico, Walker, Debuchy and Rangel
• Most defenders will see out the full game and will not be subbed off, so defenders in general are rated higher by the 'Per Appearance' model. The ones listed are simply those with the most attacking potential. Coleman now jumps above Kolarov as the most attacking defender.
• 'The Ever Present Midfielders' - Noble, Yaya, Barkley, Paulinho, Snodgrass, Ramires, Fer, Gerrard
• Clearly midfielders who play every minute are going to be higher rated when adjusting for appearances rather than apps. There's often little value in these types of players, and they are shunned by FPL addicts, but we've all seen casual's put them in their team and pick up solid points from them. By adjusting for appearances rather than minutes we get a better idea of the value of these players. For example, Yaya Toure barely makes the Top 50 for midfielders when adjusting for minutes, but he's just outside the Top 20 when adjusting for appearances instead because he plays every minute of every game.
• 'The Safe Forwards' - Suarez, Benteke, Rooney
• Again, if you have a forward who lasts the full 90 minutes then you've got even more minutes to get points from them. Aguero still ranks 2nd for forwards, but falls behind Suarez slightly because he's prone to being taken off early. In fact, Aguero drops below Walcott for all positions when adjusting for appearances.

Fallers (rate worse when adjusted for appearances)

• 'The Bench Forwards' - Deulofeu, Dzeko, Kone, Lamela, Jovetic, Chicarito, Vaz Te, Taarabt
• Finally! Those pesky forwards who come off the bench for 10 minutes denying you bench points are now rated lower by the model, this is fantastic. This is exactly why I wanted to include the adjustment for appearances.

Top 10 Players when adjusting for Appearances

• Suarez, Walcott, Aguero, Ozil, Rooney, Sturridge, Benteke, Lambert, Michu.


• No more bizarre options like Dzeko, Deulofeu or Bony this seems a very solid Top 10 for the model to give out.

Conclusion

Use both adjustments to make your decisions, but 'Per Appearance' may be a better starting point. 'Per Minute' would be useful when you expect someone's minutes to increase (such as if Dzeko or Bony begin to start and finish every game), or to directly compare the production of two players.

Over and Under-Performers

We're now nearly a quarter of the way through the season so I thought it'd be a good time to have a look at who is under and over-performing their underlying stats so far this season. In this context, a player is over-performing if they have more goals/assists at this stage of the season than we would expect them to have given their underlying stats (shots, touches in pen box etc.), an under-performing player is one who has fewer than expected. In short, those who are over-performing have probably been lucky and are unlikely to sustain their good form over the season. Being lucky doesn't mean they are not good players, just that they're conversion rates are probably unsustainably high.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Sturridge - You probably didn't need me to tell you he won't score 35+ this season, though 23+ is a more than realistic target and he's still a great FPL option.
• Remy - Has slipped under the radar in scoring 5 goals and has probably been fortunate to have done so.
• Suarez - Isn't going to average 1.5 goals a game, but could be pretty close to averaging 1 a game.
• Oscar - Mourinho's poster boy has perhaps been lucky in 4 early goals which has secured his role as Chelsea's number 10, he ranks behind Hazard for expected goals in our model.
• Van Persie - This is an odd one as many will say he's not in good form. His presence here is due to his penalty taking responsibilities, though historically he is one player who has always converted chances at a very high rate.
• Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season, but still offers some goal threat.
• Lukaku - Another who over-performed last season as well, he seems to get very high percentage chances so may continue to over-perform the model.
• Brady - Another penalty taker giving him 'free' goals.
• Giroud - Same category as Sturridge, good value but is closer to scoring once every 3 games.
• Aguero - See RVP and Lukaku, could outperform the model all season.
• Ramsey - Despite scoring 5 of his 13 total league goals this year, he is only slightly over-performing. Ramsey isn't just a bandwagon, he is a solid FPL player.
• Baines - On freekicks and penalties so will probably do better than the model predicts.
• Soldado - Penalties again given the Spaniard an over-performing tag despite not hitting top form yet.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Walcott - Can consider himself unlucky not to have scored earlier this season, expect goals when h returns from injury.
• Townsend - The shot happy midfielder has delivered goals in the Europa League and for England but has been lucky to have only scored 1 in the league so far.
• Walters - The model rates Walters quite highly, he may be due a goal sometime soon, though Stoke's attack doesn't demand much attention.
• Fer - Similar to Walters, may contribute a few goals this season but there's little reason to consider him in FPL.
• Cisse - Perrenial under-performer ever since his first few months at Newcastle, out of the team now and there's not much to suggest he'll find his way back in.
• Mirallas - A hot pick in preseason, Mirallas hasn't quite delivered on promises but he remains a solid FPL pickup.
• Michu - The infamous 'regression to the mean' has hit Michu this year, he outperformed the model by 10 goals last year, even so we can expect his goal tally to increase soon.
• Adam - See Walters and Fer.
• Lambert - A bit of extra luck and Lambert would enter into the Sturridge and Giroud debate for best striker at the start of the season, should be a reliable source of points for the rest of the year.
• Eriksen - Known more for his creative threat, Eriksen may be unlucky not to have scored yet.
• Paulinho - I'm unsold on Paulinho, his stats are good but inflated by a few great games. He offers security of starts in a good attacking team though.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Ramsey - While he may continue with a good goal threat, I'm not sure Ramsey is going to offer significant assists this year and certainly doesn't justify the 4 he has so far.
• Giroud - Has 4 assists so far and won't keep it up, but is the 2nd highest rated forward for creativity so far (behind Rooney)
• Mirallas - He's not getting goals but does have 3 assists, expect those numbers to reverse over the season.
• Pablo Hernandez - His underlying stats are good and Swansea create high quality chances so do not fear too big a drop-off here.
• Negredo - May be lucky with 2 assists so far, but with players like Aguero playing off him he'll continue to get assists throughout the season assuming he plays.
• Zabaleta - A brilliant fantasy prospect last year, Zabaleta has offered very little going forward under Pellegrini so far despite 2 assists.
• Enrique - See Zabaleta.
• Ozil- Do not be worried about slight over-performance here, Ozil's class means the chances he creates are always likely to be converted at higher rates.
• Silva- See Ozil.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Snodgrass - another player tipped for a good FPL season, he's been unlucky not to have any assists yet, though Norwich are not a team warranting FPL investment at the moment.
• Townsend - If the model is correct then we could see an explosion from Townsend in an upcoming game.
• Walker - Currently sits with zero goals and assists despite getting forward a lot, I'd expect around 5 assists for the rest of the season.
• Oscar - Is the inverse of Mirallas here, expect a bit more creativity and a bit lower goal threat from Oscar for the rest of the season.
• Baines - Yet to record an assist but with set-pieces and Lukaku to aim for this should change soon.

Ending Notes

First, penalty takers are likely to over-perform on goals across the whole season, unfortunately I don't see a way of modelling how often teams will get pens (and if I could, they are too rare an event to predict), so this has to factored in post hoc.

Second, it's also important to note that many of the over/under-performers are only out by one goal/assist. A goal/assist this weekend would see most of the under-performers move in-line with their underlying stats, similarly a blank this week would bring most over-performers into line with the models predictions.

Player Rater GW9 Update and Average Time Played Inclusion

Hope the fantasy weekend was kind to you, here's the updated graphics:

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Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

Last week I highlighted Suarez and Aguero as elite attackers, and they duly delivered last week. They've gone up even further in the rankings, and these two players really do sit in a tier above all others. If you can fit both in your team then do so! Rooney also had a good week and has gone up the rankings, include him in your front three and you've got a deadly but expensive trio. Again, Lukaku, Benteke and Lambert offer cheaper options if you prefer. Sturridge, Giroud and Soldado delivered again, and they're worth holding, but if you need a new striker then do not overlook Suarez or Aguero. I also claimed RVP wasn't worth his price, and he duly delived a goal and assist to prove me wrong. He will outperform his stats consistently, but with Rooney keeping pace and Suarez and Aguero dominating, I still see little reason to consider him.

In midfield Ozil disappointed a little, Ramsey maintained his good stats, and there is little happening elsewhere. Silva looks a good buy, but isn't going to match Aguero for points. Despite a very quiet week, Hazard seems a better option than Oscar in the Chelsea midfield, I might write an article comparing the two later in the week.

I also backed Coleman who finally delivered a CS after an extended period without any points, he still does well for attacking threat. Debuchy scored over the weekend and jumped up among defenders, he has good attacking threat but I'd steer clear of Newcastle's defence for now.

New Slider - Average Time Played

You may have noticed a new slider on the graphics titled "Average Minutes", this is calculated simply as Minutes Played divided by Appearances. I received feedback saying that the model wasn't great because it was affected by those making sub appearances (such as Deulofeu ranking highest for expected goals per minute). You can now filter by those who average a certain number minutes, identifying those who do not just come of the bench at the end of games. Using this with the appearances slider should help you find those who are playing games, and playing lots of minutes in those games.

I'm considering integrating this metric into the model as well. The advantage of doing this is it allows us to better make comparisons between players. For example, Eriksen has 46% better production than Paulinho, but Paulinho averages 95 minutes a game, Eriksen only 68. Take this into account and the two players rate very similarly. Seeing as FPL is played on games rather than minutes, it makes sense. At the moment the model assumes every player will play the same number of minutes which clearly isn't true.

The problem is that I don't see a clear way to distinguish 2 players with the same average minutes. For example, say we have two players with identical stats and both average 60 minutes a game. But, one player starts every game and comes off after 60 minutes, the other plays the full 90 minutes, but is benched every 3rd game. There's a question over how to compare the stats of these 2 players, I could build in a measure of variance, but that assumes low variance (the player who plays 60 minutes every game) is desirable which may not be the case, especially with bench players who can come on.

I'd love to hear thoughts and opinions on this and what direction to take this in.

Blog Notes

Either today or tomorrow I should have a post out about which players are currently over and under performing their stats in assists and goals. The Team Rater to assess clean sheets is also in the works.