Form Player Rater - Who Have Been the Top Performers Over the Last 6 Gameweeks?

I thought I'd have quick look at the Player Rater model which only includes data from the last 6 gameweeks. The graphics haven't got as many options as usual, and they show totals rather than adjusting for appearances/minutes.

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At the very top and Suarez is a clear run away, he isn't just in a purple patch, the model is expecting him to score just under a goal every game. Aguero is his closest rival, but still some way off. There's no sign of Ramsey's form stopping, he is ranked 3rd from the last 6GWs. Lukaku just edges Rooney, which is something to consider given Rooney's suspension this week.

In midfield, Coutinho, Hazard and Ozil are the clear elite midfielders of choice. Mirallas looks an excellent mid-price option, as does Lallana. While Downing and Shelvey top the cheap midfield options. The best budget option is Redmond, and by some margin.

Yaya Toure, Gerrard, Brunt, Navas, Nasri and Morrison lead a list of players who have scored well, but do not quite have the stats to back it, be very wary of bringing in any of these options off the back of recent points scoring. On the converse the Tottenham duo of Townsend and Paulinho continue to underperform their stats, I suspect this is a problem with the model and will seek to improve it so it doesn't rate the likes of Townsend's long range shots so highly. Downing has also been unlucky to not have more points given his stats and I have no problem backing him as a good pick up.

There's few attacking defensive options, but Walker's 2 assists have not been unjustified given his stats, while Evra, Vertonghen and Debuchy have been typically attack minded. Zabaleta's points returns are less backed up by his underlying stats though.

Finally, there are 3 huge surprises thrown up by the model: Crouch, Ameobi and Berbatov. All 3 rank above Giroud, Remy and even Negredo for attacking stats over the last 6 gameweeks, but get any of them for your team at your own peril!

Under the Radar: In Form Midfield Differentials

Seeing as the forward slots are pretty much a no brainer at the moment (select Aguero and Suarez, then one from Rooney, Remy, Giroud, Lukaku or even Sturridge, Negredo or Lambert) I thought I'd have another look at midfield options, in particular focusing on a couple of names who could prove worthy differentials. I've looked at players who are in form (only considering the last 4 GWs), cheap, and have very low ownership (under 1%).

Below is a graphic of the Player Rater model, but only looking at data from the last 4 GWs. Players must have played in 3 games to qualify, and carry at least some goal and assist threat. I then have a more detailed look at some select names.

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Leroy Fer

I gave a mention to Fer a couple of weeks ago, but never expected two goals in two games! He has gone completely under the radar but his performances the last 4 GWs are worthy of note. This one caught me a bit by surprise but on every criteria I looked at Leroy Fer's name kept popping up. Here's a quick summary of Fer's potential:

• Nailed on - over a tricky winter fixture list with much rotation it helps to have someone reliable in your teams, at least to guarantee you 2 points every week. Fer has played every game and every minute of every game, they don't come more nailed on.
• Solid Stats - his stats aren't incredible, let's not get carried away, but they are reliable and consistent. More importantly they have been improving the last few weeks which suggests he is either settling in, or changing his role within the team.
• Better at Home - He's averaging 2.6 shots and 2 key passes per game at home, but only 0.8 shots and 0.5 key passes away (source: WhoScored). It might be a negative that his away performances haven't been so strong, but if your looking to rotate him with another midfielder it's nice to know his best performances have been in home games, so there's less worry that your going to miss his points because you bench him for away games.
• Favourable fixtures - Norwich probably have the most favourable fixtures over the next 6 GWs. Only an away game against Liverpool is cause for concern, with home games versus Palace, Swansea and Fulham around away trips to WBA and Sunderland there is potential for Norwich to pick up points and turn their season around. Fer is likely to be play a crucial part in this.

This is a stats blog afterall, so I best look at some data for Fer. Squawka  provides a good look at his shot data, we see his accuracy of 60% is good, as we know shots on target matter. This high accuracy is likely due to taking most of his shots from within the box, which is another encouraging sign. He isn't the most creative player, with only 13 key passes all season (just over 1 a game), but Squawka again shows us these chances are being created in central positions, suggesting they should be converted at a higher rate.

So there you have it, my hot tip at the moment is Leroy Fer, and with a home game against Palace next, what better time to bring him in? He's not going to pull up trees, but he guarantees you 2 points every game and could contribute a couple of goals and assists over the winter period.

If your short on cash, or feel Fer is a little overpriced (which is a fair comment) then Redmond is another option. With Snodgrass and Pilkington out for the medium term he looks nailed on and could provide a good differential against Barkley or Morrison.

Ward-Prowse

Southampton's fixtures would be enough to put anyone off buying their players at the moment, but in James Ward-Prowse there's a midfielder that comes in very cheap and offers a strong mix of starts, attacking threat and even set-pieces. JWP carries almost no goal threat, with just 2 shots in 4 games, but has tremendous assist potential, ranking only 2nd to Nasri over the last 4GWs. These chances are coming from either the right, or just outside the box, as shown on Squawka, he's created 24 chances this season, with 14 of those coming in the last 4. 117 touches in the final third put him second only to Lallana for involvement in Southamptons attack.

The worry here is that Pochettino could rest him for a run like he did Gameweeks 4-8 without much rhyme or reason, but seeing as we can't predict that we can only assume he's set to continue his recent run of starts. He's another who performs best in home games, so pairing him with someone who rotates with Southampton (Norwich do, hint hint!) could prove a good strategy.

Downing

Another big surprise is Stewart Downing who is providing a good goal and assist threat, on par with Mirallas and even Oscar over the last few weeks, which is surprising given those two players big points returns last week. His goal threat is particular surprising, with 8 shots and 3 on target matching Oscar exactly over the last 4 GWs. His 20 touches in the penalty box better Oscar by 1 as well!

Downing starts have been much less reliable and he is a definite rotation risk. However he is probably West Ham's best player on current form (which isn't saying much) and offers a good route to the Hammers kind fixtures of Fulham, Palace and Sunderland in the next 4. Playing out wide without a recognised striker in the team has allowed Downing the opportunity to run at the defence, and make runs in behind.

There's no doubting that Downing's main threat is his creativity, creating 20 chances so far this season, most of which from crosses at the byline. Without Carroll in the team these crosses are probably going to waste, but with results going against him, Allardyce may start one of Petric or Cole upfront as a striker this weekend and target Fulham's shaky defence.

Tonev

After being a preseason 5th midfielder favourite Tonev has proved frustrating for his owners, but has started the 3 of the previous 4 and could be set for a run in the team. This one is a huge risk (not least for starts), but playing in behind the striker he offers good attacking potential in a team with another kind run of winter fixtures. Benteke's production has slowed surprisingly quickly since his injury and there's few other options.

He had 3 shots, all on target, in the Monday night Birmingham derby, unfortunately all were from range and not central, as can be seen on StatsZone and his shot accuracy over the season has been poor. Regardless of the quality of shot, he comes with a very enticing 4.3m price tag, but it'd take some balls to take a punt on him.

Bacuna has earned plaudits for his freekicks, but beyond set-pieces I don't think he offers enough to be considered, without a single shot on goal in his last match. Has also been playing at RWB, which should be enough to put you off at the moment.

Walters

By now you probably think I'm mad, and your probably right. But former fantasy favourite Walters still offers security of starts, some goal threat and is still likely on penalties. With Arnautovic out this week he could start in behind the striker, and while away at Everton is a tough fixture he has averaged 1.7 shots and 1 key pass per game in all away games this season.

He's also been played out wide right this season, and with Everton having no obvious replacement for Baines, Mark Hughes could look to exploit that area. Walters has created 9 chances this season, 3 from the right, and 5 within the penalty box.

Charlie Adams is an alternative, and the former fantasy hot shot does have some credentials, again his security of starts is a big enough worry to not consider him.

The Bad

I wanted to give a quick highlight to some cheap midfield options that might be worth avoiding. Ross
Barkley only just makes it on to the charts, having had jut 1 shot on target and created 1 chance in the last 4 games his early season form has completely disappeared. This weeks fixture is followed by tough matches against Man Utd. and Arsenal, so I wouldn't be looking to bring in Barkley any time soon.

Another popular option that is also struggling is Ravel Morrison who actually ranks behind Scott Parker in the player rater model! There is no doubting his abilities and potential, but past point scoring is perhaps not indicative of future points scoring in this case. Just 2 shots on target and 1 chance created suggests his suitors may be disappointed.

Januzaj has similar low involvement, just 3 touches in the penalty box in the last 4 games is disappointing and suggests he isn't worth holding given his rotation risk which will become increasingly frustrating over the winter period. In his favour he has had 72 touches which is impressive, but his actions with the ball suggest points aren't likely to come his way. If you caught his price rises then now is probably a good time to cash in.

Conclusion

There you go, five options who are completely off the radar but may well pick up points soon. The only player among them I would seriously recommend targeting at the moment is Leroy Fer though. Don't expect big returns, but if you want some reliability and at least a small chance of points than he is a good option at the moment.

FPL Position Review: Midfield

Michu out. Silva out. Hazard dropped. Big hitters misfiring. Budget options faltering. Choosing a midfield in FPL continues to be a thankless task. So following a short review of possible Michu replacements I decided to have a more in-depth look at which midfielders stand out according to the Player Rater model. Below are the two PR model graphics, filtered to show the most relevant midfield options.

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I chose Mesut Ozil as the header picture as he is somehow under the radar now, his away performances have been below par, but his FPL pedigree should not be in question. He is above all other fit midfielders for goal threat and creativity. Silva beats him for expected assists and Walcott for expected goals, but they are both out for this weekend at least. It's understandable that many don't want to double on Arsenal midfielders with Ramsey becoming almost essential, and an away fixture against Man Utd isn't the perfect week to bring him in. However Ozil is top draw and I'd expect him to be among the Top 5 midfielders come the end of the season.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal midfield and Ramsey is a serious option, he isn't a midguided bandwagon, he ranks 3rd for Expected Goals per Appearance and contributes enough creatively to make him a very solid option. If you haven't already got him then it's time to swallow your pride and do so. Cazorla is a good alternative, but hasn't shown himself to be worth the extra £2.4m over Ramsey.

The Chelsea midfield is as attractive and dangerous as ever to own. Mourinho has a wealth of options while fantasy players really have just two, Hazard or Oscar. The model suggests Hazard is a far better option, so I should be recommending him right? I would, had he not been dropped for the CL game following a missed training session, Mourinho has said he's back in the squad but his game time is in even more doubt than usual. I think the Chelsea midfield might be worth avoiding, but short term I'd go for Oscar if you were set on owning one. Schurrle and Willian make good punts if you think they might start, but there's not enough data on them yet for the model to give a good review.

Next up you might consider the Liverpool midfield for their favourable run of fixtures, the decision here is Gerrard or Coutinho. The model favours Gerrard slightly due to security of minutes, his set-pieces are also a positive. However the two are close and the choice between them should depend on your preferences as a fantasy player. If you want someone who is reliable and a good pick for the long-term then England's golden man is your pick, if you want a bit of a differential with the potential for big points then pick up the Brazilian boy wonder.

Moving onto another rotation nightmare in Tottenham's midfield, which I've already looked at here, and little has changed. Townsend remains a good option but may be rotated more in the future, Paulinho has some good stats and security of starts and minutes but isn't as hotly tipped by the model as by other fantasy sites, and other options are a huge rotation headache. My prediction is that in the coming weeks AVB will continue to experiment to find a way to score and that'll see the quality of Eriksen and Lamela secure starting spots and in turn become viable fantasy options. You heard it here first.

In Man City's midfield Silva is the obvious choice but since he is injured the selection yet again comes down to two players, Yaya Toure and Nasri. This mirrors the Gerrard/Coutinho situation almost exactly (with Nasri more likely to be dropped long term). With a full 90 minutes Nasri could prove a very good pick and short term is a nice transfer.

The Suarez/Aguero Plan

Moving away from the top end price bracket and if your looking to transfer out one of your injured or under-performing heavy hitting midfielders then you might be considering a downgrade to allow you some money to invest in the elite strike-force of Suarez and Aguero. Below are some options that'll save you some money.

First up, and there is a nice group of mid-priced options who have the reliability of minutes with the potential for big points scoring. Lallana, Cabaye, Sissoko, Mirallas, Snodgrass, Sessegnon, Amalfitano and Arnautovic make a small group of good fantasy options. I've little to say here other than that you can't go too far wrong with picking up one of these, price, fixtures and your teams rotation should guide your decision here.

The budget bracket is an interesting one as we have seen points scoring from the Barkley, Morrison, Ward-Prowse and Januzaj and each provide good attacking threat for their prices. There's always a question mark over their minutes, but for <£5.0m you can't ask for too much, if you want to free funds for Aguero or Suarez then these four are good options.

If you want to really look beyond the obvious then the model throws up some interesting differentials. Shelvey carries a fair goal threat, as does Redmond, while Downing gives your side some assist potential and Leroy Fer a little of both.

Long term there is one man I, and everyone else, is waiting for: Theo Walcott. Your Michu/Silva/Hazard replacement may well be a short term decision with Walcott's imminent return sure to turn fantasy heads, especially if he explodes onto the scene playing upfront while a jaded Giroud is given a much needed rest.

Blog Notes

Over the international break I'll hope to have a post reviewing how the model does for the 2012/13 season, and hopefully another on a model to explain clean sheets, though I'm having troubles sourcing data at the moment.

Over and Under-Performers

We're now nearly a quarter of the way through the season so I thought it'd be a good time to have a look at who is under and over-performing their underlying stats so far this season. In this context, a player is over-performing if they have more goals/assists at this stage of the season than we would expect them to have given their underlying stats (shots, touches in pen box etc.), an under-performing player is one who has fewer than expected. In short, those who are over-performing have probably been lucky and are unlikely to sustain their good form over the season. Being lucky doesn't mean they are not good players, just that they're conversion rates are probably unsustainably high.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Sturridge - You probably didn't need me to tell you he won't score 35+ this season, though 23+ is a more than realistic target and he's still a great FPL option.
• Remy - Has slipped under the radar in scoring 5 goals and has probably been fortunate to have done so.
• Suarez - Isn't going to average 1.5 goals a game, but could be pretty close to averaging 1 a game.
• Oscar - Mourinho's poster boy has perhaps been lucky in 4 early goals which has secured his role as Chelsea's number 10, he ranks behind Hazard for expected goals in our model.
• Van Persie - This is an odd one as many will say he's not in good form. His presence here is due to his penalty taking responsibilities, though historically he is one player who has always converted chances at a very high rate.
• Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season, but still offers some goal threat.
• Lukaku - Another who over-performed last season as well, he seems to get very high percentage chances so may continue to over-perform the model.
• Brady - Another penalty taker giving him 'free' goals.
• Giroud - Same category as Sturridge, good value but is closer to scoring once every 3 games.
• Aguero - See RVP and Lukaku, could outperform the model all season.
• Ramsey - Despite scoring 5 of his 13 total league goals this year, he is only slightly over-performing. Ramsey isn't just a bandwagon, he is a solid FPL player.
• Baines - On freekicks and penalties so will probably do better than the model predicts.
• Soldado - Penalties again given the Spaniard an over-performing tag despite not hitting top form yet.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Walcott - Can consider himself unlucky not to have scored earlier this season, expect goals when h returns from injury.
• Townsend - The shot happy midfielder has delivered goals in the Europa League and for England but has been lucky to have only scored 1 in the league so far.
• Walters - The model rates Walters quite highly, he may be due a goal sometime soon, though Stoke's attack doesn't demand much attention.
• Fer - Similar to Walters, may contribute a few goals this season but there's little reason to consider him in FPL.
• Cisse - Perrenial under-performer ever since his first few months at Newcastle, out of the team now and there's not much to suggest he'll find his way back in.
• Mirallas - A hot pick in preseason, Mirallas hasn't quite delivered on promises but he remains a solid FPL pickup.
• Michu - The infamous 'regression to the mean' has hit Michu this year, he outperformed the model by 10 goals last year, even so we can expect his goal tally to increase soon.
• Adam - See Walters and Fer.
• Lambert - A bit of extra luck and Lambert would enter into the Sturridge and Giroud debate for best striker at the start of the season, should be a reliable source of points for the rest of the year.
• Eriksen - Known more for his creative threat, Eriksen may be unlucky not to have scored yet.
• Paulinho - I'm unsold on Paulinho, his stats are good but inflated by a few great games. He offers security of starts in a good attacking team though.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Ramsey - While he may continue with a good goal threat, I'm not sure Ramsey is going to offer significant assists this year and certainly doesn't justify the 4 he has so far.
• Giroud - Has 4 assists so far and won't keep it up, but is the 2nd highest rated forward for creativity so far (behind Rooney)
• Mirallas - He's not getting goals but does have 3 assists, expect those numbers to reverse over the season.
• Pablo Hernandez - His underlying stats are good and Swansea create high quality chances so do not fear too big a drop-off here.
• Negredo - May be lucky with 2 assists so far, but with players like Aguero playing off him he'll continue to get assists throughout the season assuming he plays.
• Zabaleta - A brilliant fantasy prospect last year, Zabaleta has offered very little going forward under Pellegrini so far despite 2 assists.
• Enrique - See Zabaleta.
• Ozil- Do not be worried about slight over-performance here, Ozil's class means the chances he creates are always likely to be converted at higher rates.
• Silva- See Ozil.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Snodgrass - another player tipped for a good FPL season, he's been unlucky not to have any assists yet, though Norwich are not a team warranting FPL investment at the moment.
• Townsend - If the model is correct then we could see an explosion from Townsend in an upcoming game.
• Walker - Currently sits with zero goals and assists despite getting forward a lot, I'd expect around 5 assists for the rest of the season.
• Oscar - Is the inverse of Mirallas here, expect a bit more creativity and a bit lower goal threat from Oscar for the rest of the season.
• Baines - Yet to record an assist but with set-pieces and Lukaku to aim for this should change soon.

Ending Notes

First, penalty takers are likely to over-perform on goals across the whole season, unfortunately I don't see a way of modelling how often teams will get pens (and if I could, they are too rare an event to predict), so this has to factored in post hoc.

Second, it's also important to note that many of the over/under-performers are only out by one goal/assist. A goal/assist this weekend would see most of the under-performers move in-line with their underlying stats, similarly a blank this week would bring most over-performers into line with the models predictions.

The Player Rater Model

This is a visualisation of a model I'm working on which calculates how many goals and assists we might expect a player to have given their underlying stats (shots, shots on target, key passes etc.). I'll delve into the model itself as the blog develops but I wanted to post this graph to give you an idea of the content you might find here.

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The graph shows a plotting of expected goals and expected assists, adjusted for minutes played. Each data point is a player, the club badge showing who they play for. To the right you have a set options which allow you to filter the data and I encourage you to experiment with it. For example, if could look purely at Arsenal's midfielders and discover that Özil is the most creative, while Walcott carries the greater goal threat.
Essentially, as you move to the top right, your getting into the elite fantasy football players you should be targetting.

Some players are excluded so if there's anyone missing you'd like to see then let me know.

You can now find this at all times under the Player Rater tab.