Form Player Rater - Top Forwards Over the Last 10 Gameweeks

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Forwards

Suarez is essential, I don't need to say any more. Aguero might as well be (he's hidden under Eto'o in case anyone was wondering). With that done, we only have 1 forward slot left to consider, and the PR model throws up an odd name for this slot: Dimitar Berbatov.

Berbatov?

Bare with me on this one, Berbatov has some great stats. 11 shots on target in 6 appearances gives him a better SoT/game than all but Suarez and Sturridge, higher than Aguero, Eto'o and Negredo. In the same number of games he has 4 more shots on target than Adebayor does. Yes, he's not in form, and yes Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league. But don't let the absence of goals fool you that he's not been attacking. Puncheon for example hadn't scored up until 3 games ago, but his shooting stats were brilliant. Since then he's scored 2, and would have had a third if he didn't sky a penalty. Similar story with Cazorla. I want to emphasise that past shooting stats are a better predictor of future goal scoring, than past goal scoring is. And Berbatov's shooting numbers make him a good consideration.

However, I think this shows a flaw in the model I need to address. Berbatov is here by virtue of a brilliant shot accuracy, otherwise he'd be much lower down the list, and I think this is something the model overvalues. To give you a quick insight into the model, shots off target really hurt a players goal expectations. My theory behind this is that a shot off target has no chance of becoming a goal, but it also means a player gives up an opportunity to have a shot ON target, which may go in. A shot off target is a wasted opportunity, so players who waste a lot of opportunities should score fewer than those who don't. Berbatov is pretty efficient with his opportunities. Having said that, Berbatov is may not be the 2nd best choice in FPL, but he may well be in the top 10. His performances last year showed he can be a true fantasy asset as well.

Using the Per Minute adjustment rather than the Per Appearance one might also be more fair here, since many top strikers are returning from injury and have made sub appearances as a result. Aguero and Sturridge are two noticeable examples of this. When we do this, a top 4 stand out: Suarez, Aguero, Sturridge and Eto'o, the last of whom would make a very nice punt if you think he'll start more games with Torres out. Long term PR model favourite Lukaku really has sunk away recently and is one to ditch at the moment.

My Watchlist

Assuming you have Suarez and Aguero, here's how I'd rank the contenders for the 3rd forward slot:

Top Tier: Sturridge, Negredo
Next Tier: Adebayor, Rooney, Eto'o, Berbatov
Cheap (but good) options: Rodriguez, Dzeko, Bony
Lagging Behind: Welbeck, Lukaku, Remy, Benteke, Giroud

If your on your WC and debating the 3rd forward slot, I'd go for Sturridge or Negredo first. If you understandably don't want to get two strikers from the same team, then I'd go for Adebayor or Rooney, and if you fancy a punt then Eto'o or Berbatov could be lucrative differentials. If you want to save money to upgrade elsewhere then I think Jay Rodriguez is your man, he has stat lines to compete with 7-8m priced forwards and is a great budget pick. Finally, the likes of Lukaku, Giroud and Remy are old favourites, but haven't quite matched their competitors recently. They make reliable picks and have the potential to increase their fortunes soon, but they wouldn't be top of my list right now.

Form Player Rater - Who Have Been the Top Performers Over the Last 6 Gameweeks?

I thought I'd have quick look at the Player Rater model which only includes data from the last 6 gameweeks. The graphics haven't got as many options as usual, and they show totals rather than adjusting for appearances/minutes.

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At the very top and Suarez is a clear run away, he isn't just in a purple patch, the model is expecting him to score just under a goal every game. Aguero is his closest rival, but still some way off. There's no sign of Ramsey's form stopping, he is ranked 3rd from the last 6GWs. Lukaku just edges Rooney, which is something to consider given Rooney's suspension this week.

In midfield, Coutinho, Hazard and Ozil are the clear elite midfielders of choice. Mirallas looks an excellent mid-price option, as does Lallana. While Downing and Shelvey top the cheap midfield options. The best budget option is Redmond, and by some margin.

Yaya Toure, Gerrard, Brunt, Navas, Nasri and Morrison lead a list of players who have scored well, but do not quite have the stats to back it, be very wary of bringing in any of these options off the back of recent points scoring. On the converse the Tottenham duo of Townsend and Paulinho continue to underperform their stats, I suspect this is a problem with the model and will seek to improve it so it doesn't rate the likes of Townsend's long range shots so highly. Downing has also been unlucky to not have more points given his stats and I have no problem backing him as a good pick up.

There's few attacking defensive options, but Walker's 2 assists have not been unjustified given his stats, while Evra, Vertonghen and Debuchy have been typically attack minded. Zabaleta's points returns are less backed up by his underlying stats though.

Finally, there are 3 huge surprises thrown up by the model: Crouch, Ameobi and Berbatov. All 3 rank above Giroud, Remy and even Negredo for attacking stats over the last 6 gameweeks, but get any of them for your team at your own peril!

Player Rater GW13 Update

Just a quick update today due to the midweek games this week. A reminder here that the deadline is 19:30 on Tuesday 3rd Dec.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

One of the early criticisms of the model was that it rated Deulofeu very highly, well after Saturday's performance it was probably right to. The on-loan Barcelona forward put in a stunning display of his talents, with 5 shots, 3 on target and 1 created chance that led to an assist. It's too early to say he's a fantasy option but he belongs on the 'monitor' list.

The Suarez and Aguero strikeforce finally failed this week, but we can't expect returns from them every week. Suarez managed 5 shots and Aguero 6, no other player managed more shots so strap down those jerky knees! Aguero had an astonishing 18 penalty box touches, so don't consider the Aguero>Negredo move yet.

The ever consistent Rooney scored twice at White Hart Lane and is quickly becoming the standout 3rd forward of choice, it makes for an expensive front-line though, so Remy and Lukaku are great alternatives. Rooney moves into 3rd place in the Expected Attacking Points per Appearance table. Ozil repaid those that showed faith in him with 2 assists and Ramsey continued his form with another 2 goals. Fantasy favourite and blog favourite Seamus Coleman scored his 2nd of the season and is now the top point scoring Everton defender, followers of the model will not be surprised to see him score again. Aside from this group there was little fantasy action of note, with many points coming from unlikely sources such as Oviedo who filled in at LB for the injured Baines, and Hooper who may have to single handedly score all of Norwich's goals this season.

Review of Midfield Differentials

In the interests of accountability I thought I'd look at how the midfield differentials I tipped in my popular article last week performed in this weekends games. The success of the suggestions cannot be judged over one game, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how each got on:

• Leroy Fer (3), Nathan Redmond (3) - A disappointing attacking performance from Fer was a shame, but 3 pointers is not too be sniffed at with the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Coutinho returning less. Redmond was much more impressive with 3 shots and 1 on target. If you can stomach rotation when Snodgrass and Pilkington return then Redmond is a nice and cheap option.
• Ward-Prowse (2) - A quiet performance before being withdrawn on 62 minutes. He now has 2 home games, which I highlighted as the games in which he carries more threat.
• Downing (6) - This is more like it, an assist this week is representative of what you can expect from Downing, 3 shots and 4 chances created show his involvement in West Ham's attack.
• Tonev (1) - The return of Agbonlahor and Weimann saw Tonev drop to the bench, only making a 20 minute bench appearance where his only action of note was a long range effort on target. Villa are struggling for goals at the moment and that might see Lambert mix up his attackers, whether that includes Tonev remains to be seen.
• Walters (1), Adams (1) - Away at Goodison Park was always going to be a tough game, so don't read much into the two poor performances of these two this weekend. Walters did manager a shot on target from within the box, but that was it.
• Barkley (0), Morrison (4), Januzaj (0). Barkley and Januzaj didn't make an appearance this week and that should signal that anyone holding them should look to sell. Morrison was benched as well, but made an impressive impact creating 3 chances in just 14 minute, including an assist for Joe Cole's goal after practically walking through a dejected Fulham defence.

I also overlooked Sissoko who occupies a similar space in the model to Downing, he scored a wordly this week and is a reliable option. Cabaye still provides more threat as coverage for the Newcastle midfield that has somehow sneaked in 6th place.

Player Rater GW12 Update

Apologies for not bringing any posts over the international break, a lot of things came up that meant I wasn't able to dedicate the time I needed to it, but they are still in the works. I'm sorry this is coming late in the week as well. Hopefully I'll have something tomorrow on some obscure midfield options.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

Suarez, essential. Aguero, essential. Forwards in FPL are a gimmie at the moment, you can't go too far wrong. Add in Rooney (who is showing tremendous consistency), Sturridge, Giroud, Remy or Lukaku as your 3rd striker and your set. If you fancy a differential then Lambert or Benteke are also good options. This state of affairs hasn't changed in weeks and hopefully my post back then helped some to get the two big hitters in. Only 3 slots for forwards is frustrating for managers but who said this game was supposed to be fun?

The biggest performance of note among strikers was courtesy of Lukaku, who made his sellers last week look foolish with a performance worthy of his beastly reputation. He could have scored more if not for an outstanding display by Mignolet in goal. Lukaku has been blowing hot and cold, but we can perhaps forgive him a little inconsistency at his age. Two tough games follow a favourable one this week, but after that he seems a great option to pick up and leave in your team alongside captains incredible Suarez and Aguero.

In midfield and I wanted to gloat again after tipping Coutinho for returns, though his goal was in contrast to a quiet performance from the Brazilian. Over the winter period his security of starts might see him be a good option compared to the rotation risks of Chelsea and Man City midfielders. Staying with the Merseyside derby and Mirallas scored and assisted to remind us of his midfield credentials, if you go without Lukaku than he can provide suitable coverage for Everton's attack.

Elsewhere and James Ward-Prowse started and finished his 4th consecutive game and looks an incredible option at his price, offering attacking threat and some set-pieces only Southampton's fixture list puts me off here. Brady was back starting but withdrawn at half-time, his fitness problem is ongoing and Hull's fixtures aren't enticing, making a switch an option if transfers are a luxury for you this week. Elsewhere in midfield and Leroy Fer scored a 2nd in 2 weeks, more on him to come. Cabaye earned an assist in the same game.

In the Etihad thrashing Navas returned a monster haul but I wouldn't look at getting him in while Aguero is in the form of his life. Lampard also scored twice but again I wouldn't rush towards him given Oscar and Hazard are performing very well and giving returns in the same match.

In defence and Mertesacker and Evra earned attacking returns and points, but there's little to note from the player rater model. I'd keep an eye on Azpillicueta if he continues to get starts in a good Chelsea defence.