Form Player Rater - Top Forwards Over the Last 10 Gameweeks

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Forwards

Suarez is essential, I don't need to say any more. Aguero might as well be (he's hidden under Eto'o in case anyone was wondering). With that done, we only have 1 forward slot left to consider, and the PR model throws up an odd name for this slot: Dimitar Berbatov.

Berbatov?

Bare with me on this one, Berbatov has some great stats. 11 shots on target in 6 appearances gives him a better SoT/game than all but Suarez and Sturridge, higher than Aguero, Eto'o and Negredo. In the same number of games he has 4 more shots on target than Adebayor does. Yes, he's not in form, and yes Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league. But don't let the absence of goals fool you that he's not been attacking. Puncheon for example hadn't scored up until 3 games ago, but his shooting stats were brilliant. Since then he's scored 2, and would have had a third if he didn't sky a penalty. Similar story with Cazorla. I want to emphasise that past shooting stats are a better predictor of future goal scoring, than past goal scoring is. And Berbatov's shooting numbers make him a good consideration.

However, I think this shows a flaw in the model I need to address. Berbatov is here by virtue of a brilliant shot accuracy, otherwise he'd be much lower down the list, and I think this is something the model overvalues. To give you a quick insight into the model, shots off target really hurt a players goal expectations. My theory behind this is that a shot off target has no chance of becoming a goal, but it also means a player gives up an opportunity to have a shot ON target, which may go in. A shot off target is a wasted opportunity, so players who waste a lot of opportunities should score fewer than those who don't. Berbatov is pretty efficient with his opportunities. Having said that, Berbatov is may not be the 2nd best choice in FPL, but he may well be in the top 10. His performances last year showed he can be a true fantasy asset as well.

Using the Per Minute adjustment rather than the Per Appearance one might also be more fair here, since many top strikers are returning from injury and have made sub appearances as a result. Aguero and Sturridge are two noticeable examples of this. When we do this, a top 4 stand out: Suarez, Aguero, Sturridge and Eto'o, the last of whom would make a very nice punt if you think he'll start more games with Torres out. Long term PR model favourite Lukaku really has sunk away recently and is one to ditch at the moment.

My Watchlist

Assuming you have Suarez and Aguero, here's how I'd rank the contenders for the 3rd forward slot:

Top Tier: Sturridge, Negredo
Next Tier: Adebayor, Rooney, Eto'o, Berbatov
Cheap (but good) options: Rodriguez, Dzeko, Bony
Lagging Behind: Welbeck, Lukaku, Remy, Benteke, Giroud

If your on your WC and debating the 3rd forward slot, I'd go for Sturridge or Negredo first. If you understandably don't want to get two strikers from the same team, then I'd go for Adebayor or Rooney, and if you fancy a punt then Eto'o or Berbatov could be lucrative differentials. If you want to save money to upgrade elsewhere then I think Jay Rodriguez is your man, he has stat lines to compete with 7-8m priced forwards and is a great budget pick. Finally, the likes of Lukaku, Giroud and Remy are old favourites, but haven't quite matched their competitors recently. They make reliable picks and have the potential to increase their fortunes soon, but they wouldn't be top of my list right now.

GW16 Player Rater Update

As always, the updated graphics can be found here.

The gameweek started and finished with 2 incredible games, Man City's 6-3 thriller against Arsenal and Tottenham's woeful 5-0 loss against Liverpool. Convincing wins by Man United and Everton and an unconvincing one by Chelsea at home to Palace gave some interest in an otherwise quite dull gameweek that saw 4 draws, and a close home win from Cardiff.

Suarez pulled in yet another massive points haul, he is quite simply one of the best players in the world right now. His expected goals per appearance figure is actually above 1 now, that sort of form puts him in the same elite group as Messi and Ronaldo. I really can't overstate just how incredible Suarez is playing at the moment and his run of form is backed up by some remarkable shooting statistics. Liverpool eventually kept a clean sheet, the week after I wrote an article on good Mignolet replacements! Tottenham didn't even manage a shot on target which, in a home game especially, is the sort of performance that sees managers get sacked.

At the Etihad and Fernandinho was the man on show, scoring his first 2 goals in a City jersey. Aguero, Negredo, Toure and Silva all added a goal each as the spoils were shared around the team. Man City are simply unstoppable at home with a "we can score 3 more than you" attitude. The much awaited return to the starting lineup of Theo Walcott saw him score 2 goals as fantasy managers across the land scramble try to figure out how to get the prolific midfielder into their team. David Silva is another who will tempt fantasy managers with his return from injury.

Everton continued a great run of form with a convincing victory over Fulham, the result probably doing an injustice to the improved West London side. Berbatov cooly slotted away another penalty and his fantasy stock is rising. The Player Rater's favourite defender Seamus Coleman scored his 3rd of the season, while Lukaku picked up yet another lucky assist, this time off his arm.

To quickly roundup the rest of the fantasy action, Danny Welbeck somehow managed 7 shots, scoring with 2 of them, as the lead striker for Man United. Peter Whittingham scored a long overdo 2nd goal and joins a list of growing ~£5m midfielders who deliver big points hauls after weeks of no attacking returns. Gary Hooper scored a spectacular goal to gain Norwich a point, but his conversion rate seems a little too high and he isn't taking enough shots for me to consider him yet. West Ham vs Sunderland and Hull vs Stoke were 0-0 stalemates and defenders from any of these teams are good and cheap options to play in home games, with the possible exception of Sunderland who didn't concede by virtue of West Ham's awful attacking play. Newcastle and Southampton shared a point, but there was little fantasy interest beside Jay Rodriguez who is having enough shots to consider as a cheap forward. Finally, Chelsea beat Palace 2-1. They were as unconvincing as ever, but are still 2nd in the table, if they finally get going they'll be a team to fear. Chamakh scored his 3rd in 3 games, but file that one under Gary Hooper.

Aguero Replacements

The biggest decision facing many fantasy managers this week is the Aguero dilemma after he picked up a calf injury in the 50th minute. The prognosis is unknown, with the Argentine awaiting a scan on Monday, but he could be out for a couple of weeks, which could be 4-5 games. With Jovetic returning from injury and Dzeko and Negredo putting in good performances this year, Pellegrini could well be cautious with Aguero who has been used heavily in all competitions to this point. Given all of that, I decided to look at possible replacements using the player rater model.

First, Suarez is a no-brainer if you don't already own him, nothing more to say here. In the next rung down then Rooney and Lukaku standout as excellent replacements, Lukaku comes in at 4m cheaper though and I'm not sure he's much of a downgrade over Rooney so he gets my tip of the 2.

With the wildcard not far away, many might be considering a differential option. Based on the last 4 matches, Berbatov seems the standout option here. Fulham's attacking play is much improved under Meulensteen and Berbatov is the pinnacle of those attacks. Throw in penalties like the 2 he's just scored and you could do worse over the winter period.

Negredo presents an interesting and obvious replacement too. He's getting a fair amount of shots, and scoring well, but his shot accuracy is poor. He's scored 2 from 3 shots on target (Last 4GWs), but his shot accuracy of 33% is a bit lower than we might expect. To continue scoring well he'll need to either improve his accuracy or take more shots. With Aguero out the latter might well happen.

Beyond this group there is very little choice. Benteke, Giroud, Soldado and Remy have played well at times this season but are out of form at the moment, each have the class to score well but there's nothing in the stats to suggest any are due a goal haul soon. Crouch is shooting surprisingly well, but whether you really want a Stoke striker in your team is a question that is hard to answer.

There is one other option I'd consider and that is Jay Rodriguez who has 13 shots, 7 on target and 3 goals in the last 4. At his price that is tremendous value and it frees up funds to invest in midfield options like Walcott, Ozil, Silva, Toure or Hazard. Deulofeu would have been in the same category but he now faces a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

GW15 Player Rater Update

Updated graphics can be found here.

GW15 was a low scoring gameweek, the average score is inflated by the many which would have captained Suarez to get 30 points from him this week. Most of the heavily owned players failed to return points this week, with the exception of Ozil who now has 3 back-to-back double figure scores. I rated him as the best midfielder in my position review over a month ago due to him out-ranking all other midfielders for assist and goal threat.

Schurrle shone in a disappointing loss for Chelsea, scoring 2 goals and picking up maximum bonus. He would be a brilliant fantasy option if assured of starts, unfortunately that's not likely to happen any time soon. Shock clean sheets for Newcastle and Norwich in tough away matches and clean sheets for cheap defenders for Crystal Palace and Fulham meant their probably weren't many clean sheets around this week. A quick word on Palace, they are probably the best budget defence at the moment and have great defensive stats. That's before you even factor in Pulis and his focus on keeping clean sheets, so they are a great bet to pick up clean sheets in home games this year.

Another other interesting point from midfield this week is the goal from Paulinho which has been long overdue. I questioned just last week whether the model needed to be refined to accomodate for his poor shot quality, but perhaps this is the start of a good run from the Brazilian. I like him as a midfield option in a mid-price bracket with few alternatives.

And I couldn't fail to comment on a goal, assist and 3 bonus points from Leroy Fer this week which announced him to the wider FPL community. He was the header of my Midfield Differential article and has been the main (and only) success from my tips. Nathan Redmond supplied the assist for his goal, and if you were to twist my arm I'd recommend Redmond over Fer if you were looking at a Norwich midfielder, which would be wise given their kind fixtures.

I must also given special mention to Crouch and Berbatov who scored this weekend and ensured I didn't look completely mad for highlighting their potential last week. I still wouldn't suggest you put either in your team unless you really want a massive differential and like to diverge from the crowd.

Player Rater GW13 Update

Just a quick update today due to the midweek games this week. A reminder here that the deadline is 19:30 on Tuesday 3rd Dec.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

One of the early criticisms of the model was that it rated Deulofeu very highly, well after Saturday's performance it was probably right to. The on-loan Barcelona forward put in a stunning display of his talents, with 5 shots, 3 on target and 1 created chance that led to an assist. It's too early to say he's a fantasy option but he belongs on the 'monitor' list.

The Suarez and Aguero strikeforce finally failed this week, but we can't expect returns from them every week. Suarez managed 5 shots and Aguero 6, no other player managed more shots so strap down those jerky knees! Aguero had an astonishing 18 penalty box touches, so don't consider the Aguero>Negredo move yet.

The ever consistent Rooney scored twice at White Hart Lane and is quickly becoming the standout 3rd forward of choice, it makes for an expensive front-line though, so Remy and Lukaku are great alternatives. Rooney moves into 3rd place in the Expected Attacking Points per Appearance table. Ozil repaid those that showed faith in him with 2 assists and Ramsey continued his form with another 2 goals. Fantasy favourite and blog favourite Seamus Coleman scored his 2nd of the season and is now the top point scoring Everton defender, followers of the model will not be surprised to see him score again. Aside from this group there was little fantasy action of note, with many points coming from unlikely sources such as Oviedo who filled in at LB for the injured Baines, and Hooper who may have to single handedly score all of Norwich's goals this season.

Review of Midfield Differentials

In the interests of accountability I thought I'd look at how the midfield differentials I tipped in my popular article last week performed in this weekends games. The success of the suggestions cannot be judged over one game, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how each got on:

• Leroy Fer (3), Nathan Redmond (3) - A disappointing attacking performance from Fer was a shame, but 3 pointers is not too be sniffed at with the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Coutinho returning less. Redmond was much more impressive with 3 shots and 1 on target. If you can stomach rotation when Snodgrass and Pilkington return then Redmond is a nice and cheap option.
• Ward-Prowse (2) - A quiet performance before being withdrawn on 62 minutes. He now has 2 home games, which I highlighted as the games in which he carries more threat.
• Downing (6) - This is more like it, an assist this week is representative of what you can expect from Downing, 3 shots and 4 chances created show his involvement in West Ham's attack.
• Tonev (1) - The return of Agbonlahor and Weimann saw Tonev drop to the bench, only making a 20 minute bench appearance where his only action of note was a long range effort on target. Villa are struggling for goals at the moment and that might see Lambert mix up his attackers, whether that includes Tonev remains to be seen.
• Walters (1), Adams (1) - Away at Goodison Park was always going to be a tough game, so don't read much into the two poor performances of these two this weekend. Walters did manager a shot on target from within the box, but that was it.
• Barkley (0), Morrison (4), Januzaj (0). Barkley and Januzaj didn't make an appearance this week and that should signal that anyone holding them should look to sell. Morrison was benched as well, but made an impressive impact creating 3 chances in just 14 minute, including an assist for Joe Cole's goal after practically walking through a dejected Fulham defence.

I also overlooked Sissoko who occupies a similar space in the model to Downing, he scored a wordly this week and is a reliable option. Cabaye still provides more threat as coverage for the Newcastle midfield that has somehow sneaked in 6th place.

Player Rater GW12 Update

Apologies for not bringing any posts over the international break, a lot of things came up that meant I wasn't able to dedicate the time I needed to it, but they are still in the works. I'm sorry this is coming late in the week as well. Hopefully I'll have something tomorrow on some obscure midfield options.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

Suarez, essential. Aguero, essential. Forwards in FPL are a gimmie at the moment, you can't go too far wrong. Add in Rooney (who is showing tremendous consistency), Sturridge, Giroud, Remy or Lukaku as your 3rd striker and your set. If you fancy a differential then Lambert or Benteke are also good options. This state of affairs hasn't changed in weeks and hopefully my post back then helped some to get the two big hitters in. Only 3 slots for forwards is frustrating for managers but who said this game was supposed to be fun?

The biggest performance of note among strikers was courtesy of Lukaku, who made his sellers last week look foolish with a performance worthy of his beastly reputation. He could have scored more if not for an outstanding display by Mignolet in goal. Lukaku has been blowing hot and cold, but we can perhaps forgive him a little inconsistency at his age. Two tough games follow a favourable one this week, but after that he seems a great option to pick up and leave in your team alongside captains incredible Suarez and Aguero.

In midfield and I wanted to gloat again after tipping Coutinho for returns, though his goal was in contrast to a quiet performance from the Brazilian. Over the winter period his security of starts might see him be a good option compared to the rotation risks of Chelsea and Man City midfielders. Staying with the Merseyside derby and Mirallas scored and assisted to remind us of his midfield credentials, if you go without Lukaku than he can provide suitable coverage for Everton's attack.

Elsewhere and James Ward-Prowse started and finished his 4th consecutive game and looks an incredible option at his price, offering attacking threat and some set-pieces only Southampton's fixture list puts me off here. Brady was back starting but withdrawn at half-time, his fitness problem is ongoing and Hull's fixtures aren't enticing, making a switch an option if transfers are a luxury for you this week. Elsewhere in midfield and Leroy Fer scored a 2nd in 2 weeks, more on him to come. Cabaye earned an assist in the same game.

In the Etihad thrashing Navas returned a monster haul but I wouldn't look at getting him in while Aguero is in the form of his life. Lampard also scored twice but again I wouldn't rush towards him given Oscar and Hazard are performing very well and giving returns in the same match.

In defence and Mertesacker and Evra earned attacking returns and points, but there's little to note from the player rater model. I'd keep an eye on Azpillicueta if he continues to get starts in a good Chelsea defence.

Player Rater GW11 Update

As always I've updated the graphics to include the GW11 data, you can find them here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

There will be little change in the model's ratings from now on, so you can check what I wrote last week to see which players stand out at the moment. In fact, it's unlikely that the model ratings will change week to week now, so I've been thinking about including a 'form' chart which only looks at the last 6 matches. What do people think about this?

As for a short round up, I wanted to give a highlight to Coutinho this week who, despite not scoring any FPL points, had a monstrous performance this weekend. He managed 9 shots and 4 on target (to put that in context, Lukaku has managed 8 and 4 over his last 4 games!). He's currently under-performing the model, but as Chris Glover pointed out, players don't do this for long, and I he is likely to explode soon. A Merseyside derby isn't likely to be the best game for him, but after the next game Liverpool's fixtures are very appealing and they don't face the fixture congestion that teams in Europe do.

Elsewhere, Suarez extended his dominance and if anyone is essential, he is. The likes of Hazard, Lallana, Sessegnon and Snodgrass managed good points hauls this week, all of whom were highlighted in last weeks Midfield Round-up. I was also pleased to see Leroy Fer score his first goal this week after tipping him as a good all-round differential option.

Up front and Remy staked yet another claim to be considered in our frontlines and is probably the best <9.0m striker aside from Lambert who seems to have escaped attention despite two assists and a goal against Hull, tough fixtures make him a difficult buy at the moment though.

Christian Eriksen also enjoyed a good game, but failed to turn his production into points this week, I still fancy he will eventually become the stand-out option in the Spurs midfield. His next two are against the Manchester clubs though so I think he'll be one to monitor rather than buy at the moment.

Edit: I'm not alone in thinking Eriksen will be a pivotal player for Tottenham, Ted Knutson over at Statsbomb has written a superb piece on his weekend performance which you can find here.