Under the Radar: In Form Midfield Differentials

Seeing as the forward slots are pretty much a no brainer at the moment (select Aguero and Suarez, then one from Rooney, Remy, Giroud, Lukaku or even Sturridge, Negredo or Lambert) I thought I'd have another look at midfield options, in particular focusing on a couple of names who could prove worthy differentials. I've looked at players who are in form (only considering the last 4 GWs), cheap, and have very low ownership (under 1%).

Below is a graphic of the Player Rater model, but only looking at data from the last 4 GWs. Players must have played in 3 games to qualify, and carry at least some goal and assist threat. I then have a more detailed look at some select names.

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Leroy Fer

I gave a mention to Fer a couple of weeks ago, but never expected two goals in two games! He has gone completely under the radar but his performances the last 4 GWs are worthy of note. This one caught me a bit by surprise but on every criteria I looked at Leroy Fer's name kept popping up. Here's a quick summary of Fer's potential:

• Nailed on - over a tricky winter fixture list with much rotation it helps to have someone reliable in your teams, at least to guarantee you 2 points every week. Fer has played every game and every minute of every game, they don't come more nailed on.
• Solid Stats - his stats aren't incredible, let's not get carried away, but they are reliable and consistent. More importantly they have been improving the last few weeks which suggests he is either settling in, or changing his role within the team.
• Better at Home - He's averaging 2.6 shots and 2 key passes per game at home, but only 0.8 shots and 0.5 key passes away (source: WhoScored). It might be a negative that his away performances haven't been so strong, but if your looking to rotate him with another midfielder it's nice to know his best performances have been in home games, so there's less worry that your going to miss his points because you bench him for away games.
• Favourable fixtures - Norwich probably have the most favourable fixtures over the next 6 GWs. Only an away game against Liverpool is cause for concern, with home games versus Palace, Swansea and Fulham around away trips to WBA and Sunderland there is potential for Norwich to pick up points and turn their season around. Fer is likely to be play a crucial part in this.

This is a stats blog afterall, so I best look at some data for Fer. Squawka  provides a good look at his shot data, we see his accuracy of 60% is good, as we know shots on target matter. This high accuracy is likely due to taking most of his shots from within the box, which is another encouraging sign. He isn't the most creative player, with only 13 key passes all season (just over 1 a game), but Squawka again shows us these chances are being created in central positions, suggesting they should be converted at a higher rate.

So there you have it, my hot tip at the moment is Leroy Fer, and with a home game against Palace next, what better time to bring him in? He's not going to pull up trees, but he guarantees you 2 points every game and could contribute a couple of goals and assists over the winter period.

If your short on cash, or feel Fer is a little overpriced (which is a fair comment) then Redmond is another option. With Snodgrass and Pilkington out for the medium term he looks nailed on and could provide a good differential against Barkley or Morrison.

Ward-Prowse

Southampton's fixtures would be enough to put anyone off buying their players at the moment, but in James Ward-Prowse there's a midfielder that comes in very cheap and offers a strong mix of starts, attacking threat and even set-pieces. JWP carries almost no goal threat, with just 2 shots in 4 games, but has tremendous assist potential, ranking only 2nd to Nasri over the last 4GWs. These chances are coming from either the right, or just outside the box, as shown on Squawka, he's created 24 chances this season, with 14 of those coming in the last 4. 117 touches in the final third put him second only to Lallana for involvement in Southamptons attack.

The worry here is that Pochettino could rest him for a run like he did Gameweeks 4-8 without much rhyme or reason, but seeing as we can't predict that we can only assume he's set to continue his recent run of starts. He's another who performs best in home games, so pairing him with someone who rotates with Southampton (Norwich do, hint hint!) could prove a good strategy.

Downing

Another big surprise is Stewart Downing who is providing a good goal and assist threat, on par with Mirallas and even Oscar over the last few weeks, which is surprising given those two players big points returns last week. His goal threat is particular surprising, with 8 shots and 3 on target matching Oscar exactly over the last 4 GWs. His 20 touches in the penalty box better Oscar by 1 as well!

Downing starts have been much less reliable and he is a definite rotation risk. However he is probably West Ham's best player on current form (which isn't saying much) and offers a good route to the Hammers kind fixtures of Fulham, Palace and Sunderland in the next 4. Playing out wide without a recognised striker in the team has allowed Downing the opportunity to run at the defence, and make runs in behind.

There's no doubting that Downing's main threat is his creativity, creating 20 chances so far this season, most of which from crosses at the byline. Without Carroll in the team these crosses are probably going to waste, but with results going against him, Allardyce may start one of Petric or Cole upfront as a striker this weekend and target Fulham's shaky defence.

Tonev

After being a preseason 5th midfielder favourite Tonev has proved frustrating for his owners, but has started the 3 of the previous 4 and could be set for a run in the team. This one is a huge risk (not least for starts), but playing in behind the striker he offers good attacking potential in a team with another kind run of winter fixtures. Benteke's production has slowed surprisingly quickly since his injury and there's few other options.

He had 3 shots, all on target, in the Monday night Birmingham derby, unfortunately all were from range and not central, as can be seen on StatsZone and his shot accuracy over the season has been poor. Regardless of the quality of shot, he comes with a very enticing 4.3m price tag, but it'd take some balls to take a punt on him.

Bacuna has earned plaudits for his freekicks, but beyond set-pieces I don't think he offers enough to be considered, without a single shot on goal in his last match. Has also been playing at RWB, which should be enough to put you off at the moment.

Walters

By now you probably think I'm mad, and your probably right. But former fantasy favourite Walters still offers security of starts, some goal threat and is still likely on penalties. With Arnautovic out this week he could start in behind the striker, and while away at Everton is a tough fixture he has averaged 1.7 shots and 1 key pass per game in all away games this season.

He's also been played out wide right this season, and with Everton having no obvious replacement for Baines, Mark Hughes could look to exploit that area. Walters has created 9 chances this season, 3 from the right, and 5 within the penalty box.

Charlie Adams is an alternative, and the former fantasy hot shot does have some credentials, again his security of starts is a big enough worry to not consider him.

The Bad

I wanted to give a quick highlight to some cheap midfield options that might be worth avoiding. Ross
Barkley only just makes it on to the charts, having had jut 1 shot on target and created 1 chance in the last 4 games his early season form has completely disappeared. This weeks fixture is followed by tough matches against Man Utd. and Arsenal, so I wouldn't be looking to bring in Barkley any time soon.

Another popular option that is also struggling is Ravel Morrison who actually ranks behind Scott Parker in the player rater model! There is no doubting his abilities and potential, but past point scoring is perhaps not indicative of future points scoring in this case. Just 2 shots on target and 1 chance created suggests his suitors may be disappointed.

Januzaj has similar low involvement, just 3 touches in the penalty box in the last 4 games is disappointing and suggests he isn't worth holding given his rotation risk which will become increasingly frustrating over the winter period. In his favour he has had 72 touches which is impressive, but his actions with the ball suggest points aren't likely to come his way. If you caught his price rises then now is probably a good time to cash in.

Conclusion

There you go, five options who are completely off the radar but may well pick up points soon. The only player among them I would seriously recommend targeting at the moment is Leroy Fer though. Don't expect big returns, but if you want some reliability and at least a small chance of points than he is a good option at the moment.

Player Rater GW12 Update

Apologies for not bringing any posts over the international break, a lot of things came up that meant I wasn't able to dedicate the time I needed to it, but they are still in the works. I'm sorry this is coming late in the week as well. Hopefully I'll have something tomorrow on some obscure midfield options.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

Suarez, essential. Aguero, essential. Forwards in FPL are a gimmie at the moment, you can't go too far wrong. Add in Rooney (who is showing tremendous consistency), Sturridge, Giroud, Remy or Lukaku as your 3rd striker and your set. If you fancy a differential then Lambert or Benteke are also good options. This state of affairs hasn't changed in weeks and hopefully my post back then helped some to get the two big hitters in. Only 3 slots for forwards is frustrating for managers but who said this game was supposed to be fun?

The biggest performance of note among strikers was courtesy of Lukaku, who made his sellers last week look foolish with a performance worthy of his beastly reputation. He could have scored more if not for an outstanding display by Mignolet in goal. Lukaku has been blowing hot and cold, but we can perhaps forgive him a little inconsistency at his age. Two tough games follow a favourable one this week, but after that he seems a great option to pick up and leave in your team alongside captains incredible Suarez and Aguero.

In midfield and I wanted to gloat again after tipping Coutinho for returns, though his goal was in contrast to a quiet performance from the Brazilian. Over the winter period his security of starts might see him be a good option compared to the rotation risks of Chelsea and Man City midfielders. Staying with the Merseyside derby and Mirallas scored and assisted to remind us of his midfield credentials, if you go without Lukaku than he can provide suitable coverage for Everton's attack.

Elsewhere and James Ward-Prowse started and finished his 4th consecutive game and looks an incredible option at his price, offering attacking threat and some set-pieces only Southampton's fixture list puts me off here. Brady was back starting but withdrawn at half-time, his fitness problem is ongoing and Hull's fixtures aren't enticing, making a switch an option if transfers are a luxury for you this week. Elsewhere in midfield and Leroy Fer scored a 2nd in 2 weeks, more on him to come. Cabaye earned an assist in the same game.

In the Etihad thrashing Navas returned a monster haul but I wouldn't look at getting him in while Aguero is in the form of his life. Lampard also scored twice but again I wouldn't rush towards him given Oscar and Hazard are performing very well and giving returns in the same match.

In defence and Mertesacker and Evra earned attacking returns and points, but there's little to note from the player rater model. I'd keep an eye on Azpillicueta if he continues to get starts in a good Chelsea defence.

Player Rater GW11 Update

As always I've updated the graphics to include the GW11 data, you can find them here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

There will be little change in the model's ratings from now on, so you can check what I wrote last week to see which players stand out at the moment. In fact, it's unlikely that the model ratings will change week to week now, so I've been thinking about including a 'form' chart which only looks at the last 6 matches. What do people think about this?

As for a short round up, I wanted to give a highlight to Coutinho this week who, despite not scoring any FPL points, had a monstrous performance this weekend. He managed 9 shots and 4 on target (to put that in context, Lukaku has managed 8 and 4 over his last 4 games!). He's currently under-performing the model, but as Chris Glover pointed out, players don't do this for long, and I he is likely to explode soon. A Merseyside derby isn't likely to be the best game for him, but after the next game Liverpool's fixtures are very appealing and they don't face the fixture congestion that teams in Europe do.

Elsewhere, Suarez extended his dominance and if anyone is essential, he is. The likes of Hazard, Lallana, Sessegnon and Snodgrass managed good points hauls this week, all of whom were highlighted in last weeks Midfield Round-up. I was also pleased to see Leroy Fer score his first goal this week after tipping him as a good all-round differential option.

Up front and Remy staked yet another claim to be considered in our frontlines and is probably the best <9.0m striker aside from Lambert who seems to have escaped attention despite two assists and a goal against Hull, tough fixtures make him a difficult buy at the moment though.

Christian Eriksen also enjoyed a good game, but failed to turn his production into points this week, I still fancy he will eventually become the stand-out option in the Spurs midfield. His next two are against the Manchester clubs though so I think he'll be one to monitor rather than buy at the moment.

Edit: I'm not alone in thinking Eriksen will be a pivotal player for Tottenham, Ted Knutson over at Statsbomb has written a superb piece on his weekend performance which you can find here.

FPL Position Review: Midfield

Michu out. Silva out. Hazard dropped. Big hitters misfiring. Budget options faltering. Choosing a midfield in FPL continues to be a thankless task. So following a short review of possible Michu replacements I decided to have a more in-depth look at which midfielders stand out according to the Player Rater model. Below are the two PR model graphics, filtered to show the most relevant midfield options.

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I chose Mesut Ozil as the header picture as he is somehow under the radar now, his away performances have been below par, but his FPL pedigree should not be in question. He is above all other fit midfielders for goal threat and creativity. Silva beats him for expected assists and Walcott for expected goals, but they are both out for this weekend at least. It's understandable that many don't want to double on Arsenal midfielders with Ramsey becoming almost essential, and an away fixture against Man Utd isn't the perfect week to bring him in. However Ozil is top draw and I'd expect him to be among the Top 5 midfielders come the end of the season.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal midfield and Ramsey is a serious option, he isn't a midguided bandwagon, he ranks 3rd for Expected Goals per Appearance and contributes enough creatively to make him a very solid option. If you haven't already got him then it's time to swallow your pride and do so. Cazorla is a good alternative, but hasn't shown himself to be worth the extra £2.4m over Ramsey.

The Chelsea midfield is as attractive and dangerous as ever to own. Mourinho has a wealth of options while fantasy players really have just two, Hazard or Oscar. The model suggests Hazard is a far better option, so I should be recommending him right? I would, had he not been dropped for the CL game following a missed training session, Mourinho has said he's back in the squad but his game time is in even more doubt than usual. I think the Chelsea midfield might be worth avoiding, but short term I'd go for Oscar if you were set on owning one. Schurrle and Willian make good punts if you think they might start, but there's not enough data on them yet for the model to give a good review.

Next up you might consider the Liverpool midfield for their favourable run of fixtures, the decision here is Gerrard or Coutinho. The model favours Gerrard slightly due to security of minutes, his set-pieces are also a positive. However the two are close and the choice between them should depend on your preferences as a fantasy player. If you want someone who is reliable and a good pick for the long-term then England's golden man is your pick, if you want a bit of a differential with the potential for big points then pick up the Brazilian boy wonder.

Moving onto another rotation nightmare in Tottenham's midfield, which I've already looked at here, and little has changed. Townsend remains a good option but may be rotated more in the future, Paulinho has some good stats and security of starts and minutes but isn't as hotly tipped by the model as by other fantasy sites, and other options are a huge rotation headache. My prediction is that in the coming weeks AVB will continue to experiment to find a way to score and that'll see the quality of Eriksen and Lamela secure starting spots and in turn become viable fantasy options. You heard it here first.

In Man City's midfield Silva is the obvious choice but since he is injured the selection yet again comes down to two players, Yaya Toure and Nasri. This mirrors the Gerrard/Coutinho situation almost exactly (with Nasri more likely to be dropped long term). With a full 90 minutes Nasri could prove a very good pick and short term is a nice transfer.

The Suarez/Aguero Plan

Moving away from the top end price bracket and if your looking to transfer out one of your injured or under-performing heavy hitting midfielders then you might be considering a downgrade to allow you some money to invest in the elite strike-force of Suarez and Aguero. Below are some options that'll save you some money.

First up, and there is a nice group of mid-priced options who have the reliability of minutes with the potential for big points scoring. Lallana, Cabaye, Sissoko, Mirallas, Snodgrass, Sessegnon, Amalfitano and Arnautovic make a small group of good fantasy options. I've little to say here other than that you can't go too far wrong with picking up one of these, price, fixtures and your teams rotation should guide your decision here.

The budget bracket is an interesting one as we have seen points scoring from the Barkley, Morrison, Ward-Prowse and Januzaj and each provide good attacking threat for their prices. There's always a question mark over their minutes, but for <£5.0m you can't ask for too much, if you want to free funds for Aguero or Suarez then these four are good options.

If you want to really look beyond the obvious then the model throws up some interesting differentials. Shelvey carries a fair goal threat, as does Redmond, while Downing gives your side some assist potential and Leroy Fer a little of both.

Long term there is one man I, and everyone else, is waiting for: Theo Walcott. Your Michu/Silva/Hazard replacement may well be a short term decision with Walcott's imminent return sure to turn fantasy heads, especially if he explodes onto the scene playing upfront while a jaded Giroud is given a much needed rest.

Blog Notes

Over the international break I'll hope to have a post reviewing how the model does for the 2012/13 season, and hopefully another on a model to explain clean sheets, though I'm having troubles sourcing data at the moment.

Player Rater GW10 Update

After an odd gameweek with a Begovic goal and a Rangel save you can find the updated model graphics here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

This gameweek was all about Aguero. The model didn't rate his performance too well, with 9 shots and only 1 on target showing poor accuracy, but he had double the touches in the box of any other player this week! Suarez had no shots on target against Arsenal and so falls slightly back to normality, but him and Aguero still top the ratings. RVP proved me wrong, again, but with Aguero and Rooney also delivering points for less of your precious FPL cash they remain better options. Elsewhere, and a shock Newcastle win was accompanied by a great performance by Remy. He moves into the list of forwards worth owning alongside Lukaku who is currently blowing very hot and cold. The Belgian's last 2 home matches against Hull and Tottenham have seen him manage just 1 shot. His last away performance against Villa saw 6 shots and 3 on target though, and with a trip to Palace there's no reason to panic yet.

In midfield it's a familiar low-scoring story. Ozil impressed, Ramsey rolls on, Paulinho disappointed with just 1 shot (his stats are still inflated by a couple of great games), Townsend continues to top the shot charts but with only low quality chances and little else is happening. Coutinho was very impressive on his return from injury and could be on for a good run of form. In Man City's win over Norwich Silva was impressive, as was a certain Ivorian. Here's a quote from my over and under-performers post:

"Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season..."

So maybe he will.

There's little change at the back and very few attacking options. Tottenham's defence is absolutely top draw though, only allowing 1 shot on target away at Everton this week. I'd recommend heading over to FFScout to read an excellent post by @FFScout_Andy on the new BPS system, you can find the first here, but you will need to be a member. It seems this year BPS will play a huge part in defender scoring, picking up 1 or 2 bonus points every clean sheet could prove more lucrative than a handful of assists or a few goals over the course of the season.

The Michu Dilemma?

Following another blank in the Welsh derby and an injury that'll likely see him out of action for a few games (go follow @physioroom if your not already for great updates about player's fitness and injuries) there's going to be an exodus for Michu owners this gameweek. I'd like to write a full post on good midfield options but I imagine many will want to dump Michu tonight with the price fall so I'll write a quick round-up instead.

In the high price bracket it's a shame Walcott is still out as he'd be a perfect replacement. Otherwise I'd target Silva, Ozil, Hazard/Oscar or even Yaya Toure. Coutinho had a great return from injury and with Fulham at home he makes for a very nice selection at a cheaper price, Gerrard has the same nice fixture and offers more security. Cazorla offers a differential option as well, but there are better players in his price bracket. In the mid price bracket there's a few reliable options in Ramsey (if you don't already own him), Paulinho and Lallana. Cabaye also had a good game and might be worth a punt, while Mirallas has a tasty fixture against Crystal Palace this week. If you want to go budget to allow you to invest upfront then Townsend, Amalfitano and Arnautovic look the best budget options, while Shelvey is a punt that might work out with Swansea's nice run of fixtures over the next 6.

Please do note these are not projections, just a list of the midfielders who are rated highly by the model. Please also look at form, fixtures, rotation issues and injury worries when making your decision. Personally I think I'm switching for Silva or Coutinho. Silva probably has a better long term outlook, but Coutinho is cheaper, is under the radar (so could be a differential in mini-leagues) and offers a nice fixture this week.

Plater Rater Model Update - Per Appearance Option

I received some good feedback saying that the model isn't intuitively useful because certain players such as Deulofeu stand out due to high production in a small number of minutes. In the last update I discussed whether it would be useful to multiply the players 'Per Minute' data by the number of average minutes they played to rectify this. The hope was that this would give an idea of a what we expect from each player in an average match. I completely overlooked the fact that this would be equivalent to simply adjusting for appearances!

Anyway, the model is now updated so that you can select whether you want to view the data adjusted for minutes (total expectations divided by total minutes played) or by appearances (total expectations divided by appearances). Simply hit the dropdown titled 'Choose Adjustment'. I also made a small adjustment to the Expected Points graphic where the colour represents the total expected points over the season.

Head to the Player Rater tab to see the updated graphics.

Both measures have their merits. 'Per Minute' is useful for comparing players on a like to like basis, and is especially handy if you think a player is due 90 minutes (say if Man City were left with Dzeko as their only striker). But, FPL is played on a Per Game basis, and for general comparisons and rankings it makes more sense to use the 'Per Appearance' adjustment.

This adjustment is also more intuitive for how many points we might expect from a player from an average game. For example Suarez has an expected 6 points from goals, assists and bonus! That is an astonishing figure. With this adjustment Suarez really stands apart from Aguero because he plays every minute of the game, I wouldn't say any player in FPL is essential, but Suarez is pretty close.

One caveat using the 'Per Appearance' adjustment: it's still early in the season, so one or two bench appearances greatly affect the data. For example, Lukaku's made a couple of sub appearances while at Chelsea, so his average game time is 63 minutes, but he's played 90-81-67-90 in his last 4 for Everton and it seems he'll play the majority of the games he starts in.

Biggests Movers from 'Per Minute' to 'Per Appearance'

I thought I'd pick out some of the notable movements from using appearances rather than minutes to adjust players data.

Risers (rate better when adjusted for appearances)

• Defenders - Coleman, Baines, Ivanovic, Chico, Walker, Debuchy and Rangel
• Most defenders will see out the full game and will not be subbed off, so defenders in general are rated higher by the 'Per Appearance' model. The ones listed are simply those with the most attacking potential. Coleman now jumps above Kolarov as the most attacking defender.
• 'The Ever Present Midfielders' - Noble, Yaya, Barkley, Paulinho, Snodgrass, Ramires, Fer, Gerrard
• Clearly midfielders who play every minute are going to be higher rated when adjusting for appearances rather than apps. There's often little value in these types of players, and they are shunned by FPL addicts, but we've all seen casual's put them in their team and pick up solid points from them. By adjusting for appearances rather than minutes we get a better idea of the value of these players. For example, Yaya Toure barely makes the Top 50 for midfielders when adjusting for minutes, but he's just outside the Top 20 when adjusting for appearances instead because he plays every minute of every game.
• 'The Safe Forwards' - Suarez, Benteke, Rooney
• Again, if you have a forward who lasts the full 90 minutes then you've got even more minutes to get points from them. Aguero still ranks 2nd for forwards, but falls behind Suarez slightly because he's prone to being taken off early. In fact, Aguero drops below Walcott for all positions when adjusting for appearances.

Fallers (rate worse when adjusted for appearances)

• 'The Bench Forwards' - Deulofeu, Dzeko, Kone, Lamela, Jovetic, Chicarito, Vaz Te, Taarabt
• Finally! Those pesky forwards who come off the bench for 10 minutes denying you bench points are now rated lower by the model, this is fantastic. This is exactly why I wanted to include the adjustment for appearances.

Top 10 Players when adjusting for Appearances

• Suarez, Walcott, Aguero, Ozil, Rooney, Sturridge, Benteke, Lambert, Michu.


• No more bizarre options like Dzeko, Deulofeu or Bony this seems a very solid Top 10 for the model to give out.

Conclusion

Use both adjustments to make your decisions, but 'Per Appearance' may be a better starting point. 'Per Minute' would be useful when you expect someone's minutes to increase (such as if Dzeko or Bony begin to start and finish every game), or to directly compare the production of two players.