Plater Rater Model Update - Per Appearance Option

I received some good feedback saying that the model isn't intuitively useful because certain players such as Deulofeu stand out due to high production in a small number of minutes. In the last update I discussed whether it would be useful to multiply the players 'Per Minute' data by the number of average minutes they played to rectify this. The hope was that this would give an idea of a what we expect from each player in an average match. I completely overlooked the fact that this would be equivalent to simply adjusting for appearances!

Anyway, the model is now updated so that you can select whether you want to view the data adjusted for minutes (total expectations divided by total minutes played) or by appearances (total expectations divided by appearances). Simply hit the dropdown titled 'Choose Adjustment'. I also made a small adjustment to the Expected Points graphic where the colour represents the total expected points over the season.

Head to the Player Rater tab to see the updated graphics.

Both measures have their merits. 'Per Minute' is useful for comparing players on a like to like basis, and is especially handy if you think a player is due 90 minutes (say if Man City were left with Dzeko as their only striker). But, FPL is played on a Per Game basis, and for general comparisons and rankings it makes more sense to use the 'Per Appearance' adjustment.

This adjustment is also more intuitive for how many points we might expect from a player from an average game. For example Suarez has an expected 6 points from goals, assists and bonus! That is an astonishing figure. With this adjustment Suarez really stands apart from Aguero because he plays every minute of the game, I wouldn't say any player in FPL is essential, but Suarez is pretty close.

One caveat using the 'Per Appearance' adjustment: it's still early in the season, so one or two bench appearances greatly affect the data. For example, Lukaku's made a couple of sub appearances while at Chelsea, so his average game time is 63 minutes, but he's played 90-81-67-90 in his last 4 for Everton and it seems he'll play the majority of the games he starts in.

Biggests Movers from 'Per Minute' to 'Per Appearance'

I thought I'd pick out some of the notable movements from using appearances rather than minutes to adjust players data.

Risers (rate better when adjusted for appearances)

• Defenders - Coleman, Baines, Ivanovic, Chico, Walker, Debuchy and Rangel
• Most defenders will see out the full game and will not be subbed off, so defenders in general are rated higher by the 'Per Appearance' model. The ones listed are simply those with the most attacking potential. Coleman now jumps above Kolarov as the most attacking defender.
• 'The Ever Present Midfielders' - Noble, Yaya, Barkley, Paulinho, Snodgrass, Ramires, Fer, Gerrard
• Clearly midfielders who play every minute are going to be higher rated when adjusting for appearances rather than apps. There's often little value in these types of players, and they are shunned by FPL addicts, but we've all seen casual's put them in their team and pick up solid points from them. By adjusting for appearances rather than minutes we get a better idea of the value of these players. For example, Yaya Toure barely makes the Top 50 for midfielders when adjusting for minutes, but he's just outside the Top 20 when adjusting for appearances instead because he plays every minute of every game.
• 'The Safe Forwards' - Suarez, Benteke, Rooney
• Again, if you have a forward who lasts the full 90 minutes then you've got even more minutes to get points from them. Aguero still ranks 2nd for forwards, but falls behind Suarez slightly because he's prone to being taken off early. In fact, Aguero drops below Walcott for all positions when adjusting for appearances.

Fallers (rate worse when adjusted for appearances)

• 'The Bench Forwards' - Deulofeu, Dzeko, Kone, Lamela, Jovetic, Chicarito, Vaz Te, Taarabt
• Finally! Those pesky forwards who come off the bench for 10 minutes denying you bench points are now rated lower by the model, this is fantastic. This is exactly why I wanted to include the adjustment for appearances.

Top 10 Players when adjusting for Appearances

• Suarez, Walcott, Aguero, Ozil, Rooney, Sturridge, Benteke, Lambert, Michu.


• No more bizarre options like Dzeko, Deulofeu or Bony this seems a very solid Top 10 for the model to give out.

Conclusion

Use both adjustments to make your decisions, but 'Per Appearance' may be a better starting point. 'Per Minute' would be useful when you expect someone's minutes to increase (such as if Dzeko or Bony begin to start and finish every game), or to directly compare the production of two players.