Showing posts with label tableau. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tableau. Show all posts

29 November 2013

Under the Radar: In Form Midfield Differentials


Seeing as the forward slots are pretty much a no brainer at the moment (select Aguero and Suarez, then one from Rooney, Remy, Giroud, Lukaku or even Sturridge, Negredo or Lambert) I thought I'd have another look at midfield options, in particular focusing on a couple of names who could prove worthy differentials. I've looked at players who are in form (only considering the last 4 GWs), cheap, and have very low ownership (under 1%).

Below is a graphic of the Player Rater model, but only looking at data from the last 4 GWs. Players must have played in 3 games to qualify, and carry at least some goal and assist threat. I then have a more detailed look at some select names.



Leroy Fer

I gave a mention to Fer a couple of weeks ago, but never expected two goals in two games! He has gone completely under the radar but his performances the last 4 GWs are worthy of note. This one caught me a bit by surprise but on every criteria I looked at Leroy Fer's name kept popping up. Here's a quick summary of Fer's potential:

  • Nailed on - over a tricky winter fixture list with much rotation it helps to have someone reliable in your teams, at least to guarantee you 2 points every week. Fer has played every game and every minute of every game, they don't come more nailed on.
  • Solid Stats - his stats aren't incredible, let's not get carried away, but they are reliable and consistent. More importantly they have been improving the last few weeks which suggests he is either settling in, or changing his role within the team.
  • Better at Home - He's averaging 2.6 shots and 2 key passes per game at home, but only 0.8 shots and 0.5 key passes away (source: WhoScored). It might be a negative that his away performances haven't been so strong, but if your looking to rotate him with another midfielder it's nice to know his best performances have been in home games, so there's less worry that your going to miss his points because you bench him for away games.
  • Favourable fixtures - Norwich probably have the most favourable fixtures over the next 6 GWs. Only an away game against Liverpool is cause for concern, with home games versus Palace, Swansea and Fulham around away trips to WBA and Sunderland there is potential for Norwich to pick up points and turn their season around. Fer is likely to be play a crucial part in this.

This is a stats blog afterall, so I best look at some data for Fer. Squawka  provides a good look at his shot data, we see his accuracy of 60% is good, as we know shots on target matter. This high accuracy is likely due to taking most of his shots from within the box, which is another encouraging sign. He isn't the most creative player, with only 13 key passes all season (just over 1 a game), but Squawka again shows us these chances are being created in central positions, suggesting they should be converted at a higher rate.

So there you have it, my hot tip at the moment is Leroy Fer, and with a home game against Palace next, what better time to bring him in? He's not going to pull up trees, but he guarantees you 2 points every game and could contribute a couple of goals and assists over the winter period.

If your short on cash, or feel Fer is a little overpriced (which is a fair comment) then Redmond is another option. With Snodgrass and Pilkington out for the medium term he looks nailed on and could provide a good differential against Barkley or Morrison.

Ward-Prowse

Southampton's fixtures would be enough to put anyone off buying their players at the moment, but in James Ward-Prowse there's a midfielder that comes in very cheap and offers a strong mix of starts, attacking threat and even set-pieces. JWP carries almost no goal threat, with just 2 shots in 4 games, but has tremendous assist potential, ranking only 2nd to Nasri over the last 4GWs. These chances are coming from either the right, or just outside the box, as shown on Squawka, he's created 24 chances this season, with 14 of those coming in the last 4. 117 touches in the final third put him second only to Lallana for involvement in Southamptons attack.

The worry here is that Pochettino could rest him for a run like he did Gameweeks 4-8 without much rhyme or reason, but seeing as we can't predict that we can only assume he's set to continue his recent run of starts. He's another who performs best in home games, so pairing him with someone who rotates with Southampton (Norwich do, hint hint!) could prove a good strategy.

Downing

Another big surprise is Stewart Downing who is providing a good goal and assist threat, on par with Mirallas and even Oscar over the last few weeks, which is surprising given those two players big points returns last week. His goal threat is particular surprising, with 8 shots and 3 on target matching Oscar exactly over the last 4 GWs. His 20 touches in the penalty box better Oscar by 1 as well!

Downing starts have been much less reliable and he is a definite rotation risk. However he is probably West Ham's best player on current form (which isn't saying much) and offers a good route to the Hammers kind fixtures of Fulham, Palace and Sunderland in the next 4. Playing out wide without a recognised striker in the team has allowed Downing the opportunity to run at the defence, and make runs in behind.

There's no doubting that Downing's main threat is his creativity, creating 20 chances so far this season, most of which from crosses at the byline. Without Carroll in the team these crosses are probably going to waste, but with results going against him, Allardyce may start one of Petric or Cole upfront as a striker this weekend and target Fulham's shaky defence.

Tonev

After being a preseason 5th midfielder favourite Tonev has proved frustrating for his owners, but has started the 3 of the previous 4 and could be set for a run in the team. This one is a huge risk (not least for starts), but playing in behind the striker he offers good attacking potential in a team with another kind run of winter fixtures. Benteke's production has slowed surprisingly quickly since his injury and there's few other options.

He had 3 shots, all on target, in the Monday night Birmingham derby, unfortunately all were from range and not central, as can be seen on StatsZone and his shot accuracy over the season has been poor. Regardless of the quality of shot, he comes with a very enticing 4.3m price tag, but it'd take some balls to take a punt on him.

Bacuna has earned plaudits for his freekicks, but beyond set-pieces I don't think he offers enough to be considered, without a single shot on goal in his last match. Has also been playing at RWB, which should be enough to put you off at the moment.

Walters

By now you probably think I'm mad, and your probably right. But former fantasy favourite Walters still offers security of starts, some goal threat and is still likely on penalties. With Arnautovic out this week he could start in behind the striker, and while away at Everton is a tough fixture he has averaged 1.7 shots and 1 key pass per game in all away games this season.

He's also been played out wide right this season, and with Everton having no obvious replacement for Baines, Mark Hughes could look to exploit that area. Walters has created 9 chances this season, 3 from the right, and 5 within the penalty box.

Charlie Adams is an alternative, and the former fantasy hot shot does have some credentials, again his security of starts is a big enough worry to not consider him.

The Bad

I wanted to give a quick highlight to some cheap midfield options that might be worth avoiding. Ross
Barkley only just makes it on to the charts, having had jut 1 shot on target and created 1 chance in the last 4 games his early season form has completely disappeared. This weeks fixture is followed by tough matches against Man Utd. and Arsenal, so I wouldn't be looking to bring in Barkley any time soon.

Another popular option that is also struggling is Ravel Morrison who actually ranks behind Scott Parker in the player rater model! There is no doubting his abilities and potential, but past point scoring is perhaps not indicative of future points scoring in this case. Just 2 shots on target and 1 chance created suggests his suitors may be disappointed.

Januzaj has similar low involvement, just 3 touches in the penalty box in the last 4 games is disappointing and suggests he isn't worth holding given his rotation risk which will become increasingly frustrating over the winter period. In his favour he has had 72 touches which is impressive, but his actions with the ball suggest points aren't likely to come his way. If you caught his price rises then now is probably a good time to cash in.

Conclusion

There you go, five options who are completely off the radar but may well pick up points soon. The only player among them I would seriously recommend targeting at the moment is Leroy Fer though. Don't expect big returns, but if you want some reliability and at least a small chance of points than he is a good option at the moment.


3 November 2013

Player Rater GW10 Update




After an odd gameweek with a Begovic goal and a Rangel save you can find the updated model graphics here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model


This gameweek was all about Aguero. The model didn't rate his performance too well, with 9 shots and only 1 on target showing poor accuracy, but he had double the touches in the box of any other player this week! Suarez had no shots on target against Arsenal and so falls slightly back to normality, but him and Aguero still top the ratings. RVP proved me wrong, again, but with Aguero and Rooney also delivering points for less of your precious FPL cash they remain better options. Elsewhere, and a shock Newcastle win was accompanied by a great performance by Remy. He moves into the list of forwards worth owning alongside Lukaku who is currently blowing very hot and cold. The Belgian's last 2 home matches against Hull and Tottenham have seen him manage just 1 shot. His last away performance against Villa saw 6 shots and 3 on target though, and with a trip to Palace there's no reason to panic yet.

In midfield it's a familiar low-scoring story. Ozil impressed, Ramsey rolls on, Paulinho disappointed with just 1 shot (his stats are still inflated by a couple of great games), Townsend continues to top the shot charts but with only low quality chances and little else is happening. Coutinho was very impressive on his return from injury and could be on for a good run of form. In Man City's win over Norwich Silva was impressive, as was a certain Ivorian. Here's a quote from my over and under-performers post:
"Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season..."
So maybe he will.

There's little change at the back and very few attacking options. Tottenham's defence is absolutely top draw though, only allowing 1 shot on target away at Everton this week. I'd recommend heading over to FFScout to read an excellent post by @FFScout_Andy on the new BPS system, you can find the first here, but you will need to be a member. It seems this year BPS will play a huge part in defender scoring, picking up 1 or 2 bonus points every clean sheet could prove more lucrative than a handful of assists or a few goals over the course of the season.

The Michu Dilemma?

Following another blank in the Welsh derby and an injury that'll likely see him out of action for a few games (go follow @physioroom if your not already for great updates about player's fitness and injuries) there's going to be an exodus for Michu owners this gameweek. I'd like to write a full post on good midfield options but I imagine many will want to dump Michu tonight with the price fall so I'll write a quick round-up instead.

In the high price bracket it's a shame Walcott is still out as he'd be a perfect replacement. Otherwise I'd target Silva, Ozil, Hazard/Oscar or even Yaya Toure. Coutinho had a great return from injury and with Fulham at home he makes for a very nice selection at a cheaper price, Gerrard has the same nice fixture and offers more security. Cazorla offers a differential option as well, but there are better players in his price bracket. In the mid price bracket there's a few reliable options in Ramsey (if you don't already own him), Paulinho and Lallana. Cabaye also had a good game and might be worth a punt, while Mirallas has a tasty fixture against Crystal Palace this week. If you want to go budget to allow you to invest upfront then Townsend, Amalfitano and Arnautovic look the best budget options, while Shelvey is a punt that might work out with Swansea's nice run of fixtures over the next 6.

Please do note these are not projections, just a list of the midfielders who are rated highly by the model. Please also look at form, fixtures, rotation issues and injury worries when making your decision. Personally I think I'm switching for Silva or Coutinho. Silva probably has a better long term outlook, but Coutinho is cheaper, is under the radar (so could be a differential in mini-leagues) and offers a nice fixture this week.

1 November 2013

Plater Rater Model Update - Per Appearance Option

I received some good feedback saying that the model isn't intuitively useful because certain players such as Deulofeu stand out due to high production in a small number of minutes. In the last update I discussed whether it would be useful to multiply the players 'Per Minute' data by the number of average minutes they played to rectify this. The hope was that this would give an idea of a what we expect from each player in an average match. I completely overlooked the fact that this would be equivalent to simply adjusting for appearances!

Anyway, the model is now updated so that you can select whether you want to view the data adjusted for minutes (total expectations divided by total minutes played) or by appearances (total expectations divided by appearances). Simply hit the dropdown titled 'Choose Adjustment'. I also made a small adjustment to the Expected Points graphic where the colour represents the total expected points over the season.

Head to the Player Rater tab to see the updated graphics.

Both measures have their merits. 'Per Minute' is useful for comparing players on a like to like basis, and is especially handy if you think a player is due 90 minutes (say if Man City were left with Dzeko as their only striker). But, FPL is played on a Per Game basis, and for general comparisons and rankings it makes more sense to use the 'Per Appearance' adjustment.

This adjustment is also more intuitive for how many points we might expect from a player from an average game. For example Suarez has an expected 6 points from goals, assists and bonus! That is an astonishing figure. With this adjustment Suarez really stands apart from Aguero because he plays every minute of the game, I wouldn't say any player in FPL is essential, but Suarez is pretty close.

One caveat using the 'Per Appearance' adjustment: it's still early in the season, so one or two bench appearances greatly affect the data. For example, Lukaku's made a couple of sub appearances while at Chelsea, so his average game time is 63 minutes, but he's played 90-81-67-90 in his last 4 for Everton and it seems he'll play the majority of the games he starts in.

Biggests Movers from 'Per Minute' to 'Per Appearance'

I thought I'd pick out some of the notable movements from using appearances rather than minutes to adjust players data.


Risers (rate better when adjusted for appearances)

  • Defenders - Coleman, Baines, Ivanovic, Chico, Walker, Debuchy and Rangel
    • Most defenders will see out the full game and will not be subbed off, so defenders in general are rated higher by the 'Per Appearance' model. The ones listed are simply those with the most attacking potential. Coleman now jumps above Kolarov as the most attacking defender.
  • 'The Ever Present Midfielders' - Noble, Yaya, Barkley, Paulinho, Snodgrass, Ramires, Fer, Gerrard
    • Clearly midfielders who play every minute are going to be higher rated when adjusting for appearances rather than apps. There's often little value in these types of players, and they are shunned by FPL addicts, but we've all seen casual's put them in their team and pick up solid points from them. By adjusting for appearances rather than minutes we get a better idea of the value of these players. For example, Yaya Toure barely makes the Top 50 for midfielders when adjusting for minutes, but he's just outside the Top 20 when adjusting for appearances instead because he plays every minute of every game.
  • 'The Safe Forwards' - Suarez, Benteke, Rooney
    • Again, if you have a forward who lasts the full 90 minutes then you've got even more minutes to get points from them. Aguero still ranks 2nd for forwards, but falls behind Suarez slightly because he's prone to being taken off early. In fact, Aguero drops below Walcott for all positions when adjusting for appearances.

Fallers (rate worse when adjusted for appearances)

  • 'The Bench Forwards' - Deulofeu, Dzeko, Kone, Lamela, Jovetic, Chicarito, Vaz Te, Taarabt
    • Finally! Those pesky forwards who come off the bench for 10 minutes denying you bench points are now rated lower by the model, this is fantastic. This is exactly why I wanted to include the adjustment for appearances.

Top 10 Players when adjusting for Appearances

  • Suarez, Walcott, Aguero, Ozil, Rooney, Sturridge, Benteke, Lambert, Michu.

    • No more bizarre options like Dzeko, Deulofeu or Bony this seems a very solid Top 10 for the model to give out.


Conclusion

Use both adjustments to make your decisions, but 'Per Appearance' may be a better starting point. 'Per Minute' would be useful when you expect someone's minutes to increase (such as if Dzeko or Bony begin to start and finish every game), or to directly compare the production of two players.

30 October 2013

Over and Under-Performers

We're now nearly a quarter of the way through the season so I thought it'd be a good time to have a look at who is under and over-performing their underlying stats so far this season. In this context, a player is over-performing if they have more goals/assists at this stage of the season than we would expect them to have given their underlying stats (shots, touches in pen box etc.), an under-performing player is one who has fewer than expected. In short, those who are over-performing have probably been lucky and are unlikely to sustain their good form over the season. Being lucky doesn't mean they are not good players, just that they're conversion rates are probably unsustainably high.



Biggest Over-Performers


  • Sturridge - You probably didn't need me to tell you he won't score 35+ this season, though 23+ is a more than realistic target and he's still a great FPL option.
  • Remy - Has slipped under the radar in scoring 5 goals and has probably been fortunate to have done so.
  • Suarez - Isn't going to average 1.5 goals a game, but could be pretty close to averaging 1 a game.
  • Oscar - Mourinho's poster boy has perhaps been lucky in 4 early goals which has secured his role as Chelsea's number 10, he ranks behind Hazard for expected goals in our model.
  • Van Persie - This is an odd one as many will say he's not in good form. His presence here is due to his penalty taking responsibilities, though historically he is one player who has always converted chances at a very high rate.
  • Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season, but still offers some goal threat.
  • Lukaku - Another who over-performed last season as well, he seems to get very high percentage chances so may continue to over-perform the model.
  • Brady - Another penalty taker giving him 'free' goals.
  • Giroud - Same category as Sturridge, good value but is closer to scoring once every 3 games.
  • Aguero - See RVP and Lukaku, could outperform the model all season.
  • Ramsey - Despite scoring 5 of his 13 total league goals this year, he is only slightly over-performing. Ramsey isn't just a bandwagon, he is a solid FPL player.
  • Baines - On freekicks and penalties so will probably do better than the model predicts.
  • Soldado - Penalties again given the Spaniard an over-performing tag despite not hitting top form yet.

Biggest Under-Performers


  • Walcott - Can consider himself unlucky not to have scored earlier this season, expect goals when h returns from injury.
  • Townsend - The shot happy midfielder has delivered goals in the Europa League and for England but has been lucky to have only scored 1 in the league so far.
  • Walters - The model rates Walters quite highly, he may be due a goal sometime soon, though Stoke's attack doesn't demand much attention.
  • Fer - Similar to Walters, may contribute a few goals this season but there's little reason to consider him in FPL.
  • Cisse - Perrenial under-performer ever since his first few months at Newcastle, out of the team now and there's not much to suggest he'll find his way back in.
  • Mirallas - A hot pick in preseason, Mirallas hasn't quite delivered on promises but he remains a solid FPL pickup.
  • Michu - The infamous 'regression to the mean' has hit Michu this year, he outperformed the model by 10 goals last year, even so we can expect his goal tally to increase soon.
  • Adam - See Walters and Fer.
  • Lambert - A bit of extra luck and Lambert would enter into the Sturridge and Giroud debate for best striker at the start of the season, should be a reliable source of points for the rest of the year.
  • Eriksen - Known more for his creative threat, Eriksen may be unlucky not to have scored yet.
  • Paulinho - I'm unsold on Paulinho, his stats are good but inflated by a few great games. He offers security of starts in a good attacking team though.



Biggest Over-Performers

  • Ramsey - While he may continue with a good goal threat, I'm not sure Ramsey is going to offer significant assists this year and certainly doesn't justify the 4 he has so far.
  • Giroud - Has 4 assists so far and won't keep it up, but is the 2nd highest rated forward for creativity so far (behind Rooney)
  • Mirallas - He's not getting goals but does have 3 assists, expect those numbers to reverse over the season.
  • Pablo Hernandez - His underlying stats are good and Swansea create high quality chances so do not fear too big a drop-off here.
  • Negredo - May be lucky with 2 assists so far, but with players like Aguero playing off him he'll continue to get assists throughout the season assuming he plays.
  • Zabaleta - A brilliant fantasy prospect last year, Zabaleta has offered very little going forward under Pellegrini so far despite 2 assists.
  • Enrique - See Zabaleta.
  • Ozil- Do not be worried about slight over-performance here, Ozil's class means the chances he creates are always likely to be converted at higher rates.
  • Silva- See Ozil.

Biggest Under-Performers

  • Snodgrass - another player tipped for a good FPL season, he's been unlucky not to have any assists yet, though Norwich are not a team warranting FPL investment at the moment.
  • Townsend - If the model is correct then we could see an explosion from Townsend in an upcoming game.
  • Walker - Currently sits with zero goals and assists despite getting forward a lot, I'd expect around 5 assists for the rest of the season.
  • Oscar - Is the inverse of Mirallas here, expect a bit more creativity and a bit lower goal threat from Oscar for the rest of the season.
  • Baines - Yet to record an assist but with set-pieces and Lukaku to aim for this should change soon.


Ending Notes

First, penalty takers are likely to over-perform on goals across the whole season, unfortunately I don't see a way of modelling how often teams will get pens (and if I could, they are too rare an event to predict), so this has to factored in post hoc.

Second, it's also important to note that many of the over/under-performers are only out by one goal/assist. A goal/assist this weekend would see most of the under-performers move in-line with their underlying stats, similarly a blank this week would bring most over-performers into line with the models predictions.








Player Rater GW9 Update and Average Time Played Inclusion

Hope the fantasy weekend was kind to you, here's the updated graphics:








Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model


Last week I highlighted Suarez and Aguero as elite attackers, and they duly delivered last week. They've gone up even further in the rankings, and these two players really do sit in a tier above all others. If you can fit both in your team then do so! Rooney also had a good week and has gone up the rankings, include him in your front three and you've got a deadly but expensive trio. Again, Lukaku, Benteke and Lambert offer cheaper options if you prefer. Sturridge, Giroud and Soldado delivered again, and they're worth holding, but if you need a new striker then do not overlook Suarez or Aguero. I also claimed RVP wasn't worth his price, and he duly delived a goal and assist to prove me wrong. He will outperform his stats consistently, but with Rooney keeping pace and Suarez and Aguero dominating, I still see little reason to consider him.

In midfield Ozil disappointed a little, Ramsey maintained his good stats, and there is little happening elsewhere. Silva looks a good buy, but isn't going to match Aguero for points. Despite a very quiet week, Hazard seems a better option than Oscar in the Chelsea midfield, I might write an article comparing the two later in the week.

I also backed Coleman who finally delivered a CS after an extended period without any points, he still does well for attacking threat. Debuchy scored over the weekend and jumped up among defenders, he has good attacking threat but I'd steer clear of Newcastle's defence for now.

New Slider - Average Time Played


You may have noticed a new slider on the graphics titled "Average Minutes", this is calculated simply as Minutes Played divided by Appearances. I received feedback saying that the model wasn't great because it was affected by those making sub appearances (such as Deulofeu ranking highest for expected goals per minute). You can now filter by those who average a certain number minutes, identifying those who do not just come of the bench at the end of games. Using this with the appearances slider should help you find those who are playing games, and playing lots of minutes in those games.

I'm considering integrating this metric into the model as well. The advantage of doing this is it allows us to better make comparisons between players. For example, Eriksen has 46% better production than Paulinho, but Paulinho averages 95 minutes a game, Eriksen only 68. Take this into account and the two players rate very similarly. Seeing as FPL is played on games rather than minutes, it makes sense. At the moment the model assumes every player will play the same number of minutes which clearly isn't true.

The problem is that I don't see a clear way to distinguish 2 players with the same average minutes. For example, say we have two players with identical stats and both average 60 minutes a game. But, one player starts every game and comes off after 60 minutes, the other plays the full 90 minutes, but is benched every 3rd game. There's a question over how to compare the stats of these 2 players, I could build in a measure of variance, but that assumes low variance (the player who plays 60 minutes every game) is desirable which may not be the case, especially with bench players who can come on.

I'd love to hear thoughts and opinions on this and what direction to take this in.

Blog Notes


Either today or tomorrow I should have a post out about which players are currently over and under performing their stats in assists and goals. The Team Rater to assess clean sheets is also in the works.

25 October 2013

Player Rater GW8 Update

Sorry for this being a late post, but here's the updated graphic which includes GW8 stats:


New Graphic - Expected Points

I also wanted to introduce a new graphic which shows expected points for the season so far. It only considers FPL points that are gained from goals and assists and the subsequent bonus points award for these. So things like appearances, clean sheets and bookings aren't considered at all. The calculation for expected points is:

Expected Points=(Points for Assists)*(Expected Assists)+(Points for Goal)*(Expected Goals).


Where players get 3 points for an assist, plus some bonus points, and 4,5 or 6 points for a goal (depending on position) plus bonus points. The estimates for bonus points awarded are taken from this article. Again, the values are adjusted for minutes played.




This graphic can now be found under the Player Rater tab along with the above graphic.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model


Upfront there's an elite of 3 players I'd target: Suarez, Aguero and Benteke. Giroud, Sturridge, Lukaku, Rooney, Remy and Lambert fall in the next band and are also excellent choices. Bony and Eto'o would be in that category too if only their minutes were secure. RVP is ranked just 13th for strikers and I can't see him being worth his price tag.

In midfield there's an odd bunch, but Ozil dominates here, with Hazard, Michu and Silva also showing good production. Using the Goals and Assists visual above we see Ozil and Silva dominating in expected assists, they really are a class above. Mirallas, Ramsey and surpisingly Eriksen seem good mid-price options if you feel their places are secure. Amalfitano looks best of the budget bracket, though Januzaj's stats are worth paying attention to.

The highest rated defender is Kolorov, but his place is always in question. The highest rated and secure defender is Coleman, who ranks only just behind Barkley, showing how attacking he really is. Coleman's a great pick and hopefully a season keeper despite giving 4 points over 4 weeks. Ivanovic and Glen Johnson offer good attacking threat and are worth their price tags, while Swansea have a number of defenders worth considering.

Blog Notes

I hate to say I called it, but Townsend delivered on his stats this week with a deserved goal for Tottenham, with a rest midweek expect another start and more points.

I'm also working on a Team Rater which should show which teams are most attacking and most likely to keep clean sheets. These will be coming soon.

13 October 2013

The Player Rater Model

This is a visualisation of a model I'm working on which calculates how many goals and assists we might expect a player to have given their underlying stats (shots, shots on target, key passes etc.). I'll delve into the model itself as the blog develops but I wanted to post this graph to give you an idea of the content you might find here.


The graph shows a plotting of expected goals and expected assists, adjusted for minutes played. Each data point is a player, the club badge showing who they play for. To the right you have a set options which allow you to filter the data and I encourage you to experiment with it. For example, if could look purely at Arsenal's midfielders and discover that Özil is the most creative, while Walcott carries the greater goal threat.
Essentially, as you move to the top right, your getting into the elite fantasy football players you should be targetting.

Some players are excluded so if there's anyone missing you'd like to see then let me know.

You can now find this at all times under the Player Rater tab.