Form Player Rater - Top Forwards Over the Last 10 Gameweeks

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Forwards

Suarez is essential, I don't need to say any more. Aguero might as well be (he's hidden under Eto'o in case anyone was wondering). With that done, we only have 1 forward slot left to consider, and the PR model throws up an odd name for this slot: Dimitar Berbatov.

Berbatov?

Bare with me on this one, Berbatov has some great stats. 11 shots on target in 6 appearances gives him a better SoT/game than all but Suarez and Sturridge, higher than Aguero, Eto'o and Negredo. In the same number of games he has 4 more shots on target than Adebayor does. Yes, he's not in form, and yes Fulham are one of the worst teams in the league. But don't let the absence of goals fool you that he's not been attacking. Puncheon for example hadn't scored up until 3 games ago, but his shooting stats were brilliant. Since then he's scored 2, and would have had a third if he didn't sky a penalty. Similar story with Cazorla. I want to emphasise that past shooting stats are a better predictor of future goal scoring, than past goal scoring is. And Berbatov's shooting numbers make him a good consideration.

However, I think this shows a flaw in the model I need to address. Berbatov is here by virtue of a brilliant shot accuracy, otherwise he'd be much lower down the list, and I think this is something the model overvalues. To give you a quick insight into the model, shots off target really hurt a players goal expectations. My theory behind this is that a shot off target has no chance of becoming a goal, but it also means a player gives up an opportunity to have a shot ON target, which may go in. A shot off target is a wasted opportunity, so players who waste a lot of opportunities should score fewer than those who don't. Berbatov is pretty efficient with his opportunities. Having said that, Berbatov is may not be the 2nd best choice in FPL, but he may well be in the top 10. His performances last year showed he can be a true fantasy asset as well.

Using the Per Minute adjustment rather than the Per Appearance one might also be more fair here, since many top strikers are returning from injury and have made sub appearances as a result. Aguero and Sturridge are two noticeable examples of this. When we do this, a top 4 stand out: Suarez, Aguero, Sturridge and Eto'o, the last of whom would make a very nice punt if you think he'll start more games with Torres out. Long term PR model favourite Lukaku really has sunk away recently and is one to ditch at the moment.

My Watchlist

Assuming you have Suarez and Aguero, here's how I'd rank the contenders for the 3rd forward slot:

Top Tier: Sturridge, Negredo
Next Tier: Adebayor, Rooney, Eto'o, Berbatov
Cheap (but good) options: Rodriguez, Dzeko, Bony
Lagging Behind: Welbeck, Lukaku, Remy, Benteke, Giroud

If your on your WC and debating the 3rd forward slot, I'd go for Sturridge or Negredo first. If you understandably don't want to get two strikers from the same team, then I'd go for Adebayor or Rooney, and if you fancy a punt then Eto'o or Berbatov could be lucrative differentials. If you want to save money to upgrade elsewhere then I think Jay Rodriguez is your man, he has stat lines to compete with 7-8m priced forwards and is a great budget pick. Finally, the likes of Lukaku, Giroud and Remy are old favourites, but haven't quite matched their competitors recently. They make reliable picks and have the potential to increase their fortunes soon, but they wouldn't be top of my list right now.

Form Player Rater - Top Performers Over the Last 10 Gameweeks?

Back in December I used the Player Rater model to have a look at who the best recent performers had been and it proved a popular post so I'm doing another one! This time I'm looking at the last 10 gameweeks instead, by including more games we get a slightly better representation of the players medium-long term performance, so we don't just look at who's had 1 or 2 great games (like Adam Johnson)

Below are the two PR model graphics, but they only include data from the last 10 gameweeks (13-22), over the next few days I'll have an article for each position, starting with the forward position tomorrow.

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The format should be familiar, but the filters on the side now apply to both the scatter diagram and bar chart, which should make things a bit easier. If anyone has any questions on this, and how the PR model works, don't hesitate to ask me. Best place to get ahold of me is on Twitter @The_First_Touch.

Over/Under-Performers

I also created an updated diagram for over/under-performers according to the model. You can find an explanation of what these show here, but the general idea is that if someone is way above the trendline shown, then they have been fortunate to get as many goals/assists as they have and we can expect them to regress soon. If they are way under the line then they have been unlucky in their efforts so far, and we might expect more points from them in future.

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Again, if any disagrees with the model then I'd love to hear your thoughts and how I could improve the model and graphics.

GW22 Player Rater Update and News

Player Rater Update

The graphics have been updated to include GW22's data, you can find them here as always. No comments, but later today I'll have a post up looking at stats from the last 10 gameweeks, just to get a sense of who's done well over the medium term. This should give an idea of who's putting in good performances, but give a slightly longer time frame for allow for peaks and troughs in performances.

News

I'm going to be writing some articles over at insideFPL. I've mentioned the site on here many times so you should all know it by now, it's basically a bigger better version of what I try and do here. I'll post a link to articles I write on insideFPL here, so if anyone follows this blog specifically they can see my articles over there as well.

The Player Raters Team of the (Half) Season

The end is nigh for player rater model, I'm hoping to replace it with a more refined model soon so there won't be any more updates to the current model. As a send off for the model, I thought I'd have a looked at what it thinks the best team so far would have been, it might serve as help for those on wildcards as well. Remember that the model only looks at points from goals and assist, it ignores clean sheets, appearance points, most bonus points and yellow/red cards. This is most noticeable with defenders, the choices are the most attacking defenders, not the ones I'd expect to get most points.

To select the team I modified the superb spreadsheet produced over at insideFPL, go check it out because it's a great tool to play around with. I pulled the ratings from the PR model and run the solver to find the best attacking 10. I decided to find two teams, the first was the perfect team found with an unlimited budget, the second a cheaper option which includes some differential options. Remember the players are selected for best attacking potential on a per appearance basis!

The Player Raters Perfect Team

Here's how the team breaks down:

Player	Current Price	Expected Points from Goals and Assists (Per Appearance)
Coleman	£6.7m	1.5
Debuchy	£5.2m	1.3
Kolarov	£5.3m	1.1
Walcott	£9.6m	3.1
Ozil	£10.0	3
Ramsey	£7.2m	3
Eriksen	£7.2m	3
Suarez	£13.3m	6.2
Aguero	£11.9m	4.3
Sturridge	£9.1m	3.1
Sum	£85.5m	29.6

Not a bad looking team, and all for a very modest £85.5m. It's not quite affordable, but downgrade one of the heavy hitters and your left with a realistic team. (Thanks to @SoccerSaber for pointing this out). This team has an expected points total of 29.6 each gameweek, so that's roughly 5 goals and 2 assists. Not bad from 10 players.

First thing to note is three Arsenal midfielders, which shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. What might is that Ramsey is one of them, his points are no fluke at all (unlike a certain Ivorian), they are fully backed up by his stats. The second thing to note is that Sturridge is the 3rd striker, with a return this past gameweek many will be debating whether to double up on Liverpool strikers. The stats certainly back that idea up, but Sturridge's injury record has always blighted his fantasy prospects. Third, the inclusion of Eriksen will almost certainly come as a surprise, unless of course you've been following this blog, since I tipped Eriksen to be a big name 2 months ago. His stats really put him among the elite midfielders and at £7.3m, he's about £2m under his real value, making him a tremendous pick up on your wildcard.

I also want to highlight the defence. The three chosen are the three with the best attacking potential (subject to budget) but all are viable picks. Coleman is obviously a great pick and leading all defenders for points, Debuchy's value is harmed by his propensity to a yellow card, while Kolarov could be a steal for the second half of the season. Incredibly attacking and now seemingly first choice LB for one of the best defences in the league, all for £5.4m.

The 'almost made it' list of players who just missed out on being included in this team:
Defence: Walker, Ivanovic
Midfield: Hazard, Silva, Coutinho
Forwards: Rooney, Lukaku

The Player Raters Budget Team

Here's how the team breaks down:

Player	Current Price	Expected Points from Goals and Assists (Per Appearance)
Bardsley	£4.5m	1.0
Shaw	£4.8m	0.9
Delaney	£4.4m	0.6
Shelvey	£5.4m	1.9
Redmond	£4.6m	1.7
Dyer	£5.2m	1.7
Puncheon	£4.9m	1.7
Rodriguez	£6.3m	1.9
Berbatov	£7.0m	2.4
Crouch	£5.5m	1.8
Sum	£52.6m	15.6

First, let me state that when I was running the solver to find a budget team, Suarez, Ramsey and Eriksen were included in almost every team. Not only are they big point getters, but they also offer tremendous value. I've manually excluded them from consideration for this team.

Now, I'm expecting to catch some flack here because it includes some odd names, and excludes some obvious ones like Januzaj, Barkley and Ravel Morrison. Neither of these are rated poorly by the model, but the players chosen just edged them for expected points. While these names are high profile, they're not much better than their unknown rivals. Barkley has grabbed roughly 3.5PPG so far, while Redmond has 3.1PPG, and the model has Barkley as over-performing his underlying stats.

Bardsley and Shaw are clearly worth considering, both are playing in good defences (though Southampton's is much better than Sunderland's) and offer some attacking potential for a kind price. I'd be less keen on Delaney when there are £4.0m alternatives in Palace's backline.

Upfront is where there could be some real value, especially in Berbatov who almost made it into the main team! As the front man for a much improved Fulham attack, Berbatov's fantasy pedigree can't be questioned but there's an element of risk in putting him in your team. More secure but much less glamorous is Crouch, who would be my ultra-budget forward of choice if you wanted funds to invest elsewhere in your team.

The 'almost made it' list of players who just missed out on being included in this team:
Defence: Celustuka, Rangel
Midfield: Mutch, Kasami, Amalfitano
Forwards: Hooper, Berahino, Deulofeu, Long

Wrap-Up

So there you have it, two teams that have been selected to gain most attacking points (goals and assists). They're by no means the 'perfect' teams, but my wildcard team will probably end up with 7 or 8 of the same names as the main team.

*Edit* The latest stats for GW21 haven't been included, so the inclusion of Eriksen and Sturridge comes before their big games the weekend just gone!

GW19 Player Rater Update

I've found a spare half hour so here's an update to the Player Rater model. Nothing special, but I thought I'd update the model so that those wildcarding early and wanting to use the model can do so with the latest data included. I've got a few ideas for articles to help with those tricky wildcard decisions, but I don't want to colour people's interpretations of the model too much.

As for a quick round-up of the last few games, in defence it's all been about Seamus Coleman who has scored 3 times in the last 4 games. Long term readers will know my love for Coleman and I tipped him in the very first player rater update in GW8 as he was coming off the back of 4 pts in 4 weeks! The power of models like this one is it not influenced by recent points and looks at the performance of players, not the results. Coleman is no doubt due to regress, I don't think he'll hit double figures this year, but he still possesses more goal threat than any of defender. Elsewhere and Mertesacker, Ward and Bardsley have had a good few gameweeks, all off of the back of cleansheets and bonus points, while Debuchy has converted his attacking potential into assists.

In the last update in GW16 I highlighted the much anticipated return of Theo Walcott, 2 goals and an assist since then signals his potential as one of the best midfield prospects. He may well have to wrestle that title from Eden Hazard however, he now sits a top of the midfielders in the FPL game thanks in part to Ramsey's recent injury. Two goals and 5 bonus points in the last 3 show that he shouldn't be ignored and has settled the debate over whether Hazard or Oscar is the best Chelsea midfielder to own. Yohan Cabaye has also scored twice in the last 3 GWs, and sits alongside Adam Lallana as brilliant mid-priced prospects that offer reliability of minutes and strong attacking potential. The absence of Gerrard signalled to many a dip in Liverpool's performances but quite the opposite has happened and they have been the victim of poor refereeing decisions in away losses to Man City and Chelsea. Henderson and Sterling have been the fantasy beneficiaries of this, but it remains to be seen what their prospects are when Gerrard returns as expected on New Years Day.

Finally, forwards have been a pretty sorry story. With Aguero and Rooney missing games through injury, Suarez facing tough fixtures and Lukaku not finding the net in 5 games, those that dared to be different and went with Adebayor or Dzeko have reaped the rewards. I'm still not convinced by any of these options, aside from Jay Rodriguez who earned himself 50,000 new owners off the back of a 2 goal and 1 assist display away at Cardiff. With 6 goals prior to that Rodriguez had somewhat flown under the radar, but the model did flag him as a possible Aguero replacement. He's certainly the only cheap forward I would consider for my team.

That's all for this round up, I wish you all a Happy New Year and I can't wait for transfer silly season, FA Cup 3rd Round and the FPL wildcard in January!

Christmas Blog Update

Just a quick update for the blog, the player rater model won't be updated over the next couple of gameweeks. With matches coming thick and fast I didn't think there was much point in updating it every few days, especially when most transfers will be short term ones with the January wildcard round the corner.

It's also unlikely they'll be any posts till the New Year, but I've got a few things lined up which could be very interesting. I'm also hoping to have the long awaited team rater section of the site up in January.

Lastly, thank you all for reading this blog! I'm still only getting a few reads, but it's great to hear feedback from those that do. I'm doing this just as a hobby, but it's brilliant to find others that are interested in football data and analytics. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and, more importantly, a happy winter fixture congestion!

GW16 Player Rater Update

As always, the updated graphics can be found here.

The gameweek started and finished with 2 incredible games, Man City's 6-3 thriller against Arsenal and Tottenham's woeful 5-0 loss against Liverpool. Convincing wins by Man United and Everton and an unconvincing one by Chelsea at home to Palace gave some interest in an otherwise quite dull gameweek that saw 4 draws, and a close home win from Cardiff.

Suarez pulled in yet another massive points haul, he is quite simply one of the best players in the world right now. His expected goals per appearance figure is actually above 1 now, that sort of form puts him in the same elite group as Messi and Ronaldo. I really can't overstate just how incredible Suarez is playing at the moment and his run of form is backed up by some remarkable shooting statistics. Liverpool eventually kept a clean sheet, the week after I wrote an article on good Mignolet replacements! Tottenham didn't even manage a shot on target which, in a home game especially, is the sort of performance that sees managers get sacked.

At the Etihad and Fernandinho was the man on show, scoring his first 2 goals in a City jersey. Aguero, Negredo, Toure and Silva all added a goal each as the spoils were shared around the team. Man City are simply unstoppable at home with a "we can score 3 more than you" attitude. The much awaited return to the starting lineup of Theo Walcott saw him score 2 goals as fantasy managers across the land scramble try to figure out how to get the prolific midfielder into their team. David Silva is another who will tempt fantasy managers with his return from injury.

Everton continued a great run of form with a convincing victory over Fulham, the result probably doing an injustice to the improved West London side. Berbatov cooly slotted away another penalty and his fantasy stock is rising. The Player Rater's favourite defender Seamus Coleman scored his 3rd of the season, while Lukaku picked up yet another lucky assist, this time off his arm.

To quickly roundup the rest of the fantasy action, Danny Welbeck somehow managed 7 shots, scoring with 2 of them, as the lead striker for Man United. Peter Whittingham scored a long overdo 2nd goal and joins a list of growing ~£5m midfielders who deliver big points hauls after weeks of no attacking returns. Gary Hooper scored a spectacular goal to gain Norwich a point, but his conversion rate seems a little too high and he isn't taking enough shots for me to consider him yet. West Ham vs Sunderland and Hull vs Stoke were 0-0 stalemates and defenders from any of these teams are good and cheap options to play in home games, with the possible exception of Sunderland who didn't concede by virtue of West Ham's awful attacking play. Newcastle and Southampton shared a point, but there was little fantasy interest beside Jay Rodriguez who is having enough shots to consider as a cheap forward. Finally, Chelsea beat Palace 2-1. They were as unconvincing as ever, but are still 2nd in the table, if they finally get going they'll be a team to fear. Chamakh scored his 3rd in 3 games, but file that one under Gary Hooper.

Aguero Replacements

The biggest decision facing many fantasy managers this week is the Aguero dilemma after he picked up a calf injury in the 50th minute. The prognosis is unknown, with the Argentine awaiting a scan on Monday, but he could be out for a couple of weeks, which could be 4-5 games. With Jovetic returning from injury and Dzeko and Negredo putting in good performances this year, Pellegrini could well be cautious with Aguero who has been used heavily in all competitions to this point. Given all of that, I decided to look at possible replacements using the player rater model.

First, Suarez is a no-brainer if you don't already own him, nothing more to say here. In the next rung down then Rooney and Lukaku standout as excellent replacements, Lukaku comes in at 4m cheaper though and I'm not sure he's much of a downgrade over Rooney so he gets my tip of the 2.

With the wildcard not far away, many might be considering a differential option. Based on the last 4 matches, Berbatov seems the standout option here. Fulham's attacking play is much improved under Meulensteen and Berbatov is the pinnacle of those attacks. Throw in penalties like the 2 he's just scored and you could do worse over the winter period.

Negredo presents an interesting and obvious replacement too. He's getting a fair amount of shots, and scoring well, but his shot accuracy is poor. He's scored 2 from 3 shots on target (Last 4GWs), but his shot accuracy of 33% is a bit lower than we might expect. To continue scoring well he'll need to either improve his accuracy or take more shots. With Aguero out the latter might well happen.

Beyond this group there is very little choice. Benteke, Giroud, Soldado and Remy have played well at times this season but are out of form at the moment, each have the class to score well but there's nothing in the stats to suggest any are due a goal haul soon. Crouch is shooting surprisingly well, but whether you really want a Stoke striker in your team is a question that is hard to answer.

There is one other option I'd consider and that is Jay Rodriguez who has 13 shots, 7 on target and 3 goals in the last 4. At his price that is tremendous value and it frees up funds to invest in midfield options like Walcott, Ozil, Silva, Toure or Hazard. Deulofeu would have been in the same category but he now faces a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

GW15 Player Rater Update

Updated graphics can be found here.

GW15 was a low scoring gameweek, the average score is inflated by the many which would have captained Suarez to get 30 points from him this week. Most of the heavily owned players failed to return points this week, with the exception of Ozil who now has 3 back-to-back double figure scores. I rated him as the best midfielder in my position review over a month ago due to him out-ranking all other midfielders for assist and goal threat.

Schurrle shone in a disappointing loss for Chelsea, scoring 2 goals and picking up maximum bonus. He would be a brilliant fantasy option if assured of starts, unfortunately that's not likely to happen any time soon. Shock clean sheets for Newcastle and Norwich in tough away matches and clean sheets for cheap defenders for Crystal Palace and Fulham meant their probably weren't many clean sheets around this week. A quick word on Palace, they are probably the best budget defence at the moment and have great defensive stats. That's before you even factor in Pulis and his focus on keeping clean sheets, so they are a great bet to pick up clean sheets in home games this year.

Another other interesting point from midfield this week is the goal from Paulinho which has been long overdue. I questioned just last week whether the model needed to be refined to accomodate for his poor shot quality, but perhaps this is the start of a good run from the Brazilian. I like him as a midfield option in a mid-price bracket with few alternatives.

And I couldn't fail to comment on a goal, assist and 3 bonus points from Leroy Fer this week which announced him to the wider FPL community. He was the header of my Midfield Differential article and has been the main (and only) success from my tips. Nathan Redmond supplied the assist for his goal, and if you were to twist my arm I'd recommend Redmond over Fer if you were looking at a Norwich midfielder, which would be wise given their kind fixtures.

I must also given special mention to Crouch and Berbatov who scored this weekend and ensured I didn't look completely mad for highlighting their potential last week. I still wouldn't suggest you put either in your team unless you really want a massive differential and like to diverge from the crowd.

Which European Team Creates and Limits the Most Shots?

Following on from my first article looking at shot data from the Top 5 European leagues using data from WhoScored, I decided to take a lot at the defensive and attacking sides of shots. Much inspired by the graphics of the Ben Mayhew which most of you have probably seen, I also thank Ben for his courtesy in allowing me to post this graphics.

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Again, I want to allow you, the reader, draw your own conclusion but I thought I'd pick out a couple of teams worthy of note.

Fulham are very, very poor at both creating shots and stopping the opposition from shooting, but were even worse 2 games ago. The sacking of Martin Jol was probably justified by Fulham's performances, which led them to be one of the worst teams in Europe according to this model. The appointment of Rene Meulensteen also seems a good one, especially on the offensive end, with Fulham averaging an astonishing 18.5 shots per game since he has been in charge. That's double their average of all games so far and puts them on par with the likes of Bayern and Dortmund. These have been 2 home games, but they've been against a great defence in Spurs and a good one in Aston Villa. The quality in the squad that saw them finish 12th last year suggests they have the potential to turn things around, but there is a lot to be worked on.

Unsurprisingly few teams are elite in one area but poor in another. Hamburg are the only team who seem to be gung-ho all out attack and have scored as many as Schalke despite being 7 places below them in the table. This is likely in part due to the shooting of Pierre-Michel Lasogga who is averaging 3 shots per game, 3rd most in the Bundesliga.

Nantes are alone in the ' Top Defence, Poor Attack' section, but it is Lille that seem the most defensive team in Europe. Currently sitting 3rd in Ligue 1, Lille have only managed to score 18 goals (which places them 12th in Ligue 1), but have an impressive defensive record, conceding just 5 in 17 games. I don't watch Ligue 1 so can't give an explanation for this, but WhoScored's player ratings suggest Idrissa Gueye should receive much credit as a holding defensive midfielder. His stats suggests he plays the Makelele role superbly, and he might be one to look at for in future transfer windows (hint hint David Moyes). If anyone reading this does know more about Gueye I'd love to hear about it.

In the premier league and there's a small group of Man City, Chelsea and Tottenham who lead the league in taking shots and limiting to opposition in shooting. A more detailed piece of analysis might show Tottenham's shots are largely from long range, leaving Man City and Chelsea as the Top 2. Like many others these are the two teams I expect to ultimately fight it out for the title. Arsenal much more middling and I'll be bold and suggest they'll finish outside the Top 3.

With 5 straight wins you don't need a graphic to tell you Juventus are quite good and there's no reason to bet against them in Serie A. What will be interesting is whether they can translate their league dominance into top European performances. They are yet to qualify from Group B, needing a point in their final away game against Juventus, and their absence from the knockout stage would be a loss to the competition.

In La Liga we see Real Madrid stand far above anyone else in Europe for shots per game, not at all surprising given the shooting abilities of Ronaldo and Bale. They are only average across Europe for stopping the opponent having shots, but who needs clean sheets when you average nearly 3 goals per game.

A Look at Keeper Options in FPL

With just 2 clean sheets in today's games and Mignolet's owners who make up 39.2% of the game looking to move on the Belgian ahead of a nightmareish run of 4 fixtures I thought I'd have a look at goalkeeping options from now till the January wildcard. Below is the table I'll be using, the filters below it will help you decide who you want in your team. An explanation of the criteria is given below.

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Criteria Explanations

1. Backup Keepers - First up I looked at which keeper might soon lose his place and to who. Pantillimon seems first choice at the moment, but were not sure if it'll last. Boruc will come straight in when fit, as will Foster. Westwood and Vorm have both been first choice, but Mannone and Tremmel have rotated with them at times this year.

2. Defender Options - I've picked out some defenders that come with some attacking potential that might be a better way to cover clean sheets for that team. Evra and Walker are perfect examples of players who carry significant attacking threat to make them worth the extra money, and thus making De Gea and Lloris less attractive as keeper options. (Note, there may also be defenders worth considering that have a potential for bonus points, such as Jagielka at Everton or Chico Flores at Swansea)

3. Next 6 Fixture Ratings - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the next 6 fixtures for each team for ease. I used the excellent Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker to judge this, if you're not already a member I highly recommend it!

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Form) - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the team for strength of their defense over the last 6 games only (excluding today's games). This is judged on underlying defensive stats only, and not actual goals conceded or clean sheet records. It looks at shots and shot position, quality of shot, chances created and the location of those chances, and crosses. Each team is then rated in each category according to every other team. For example, Man City have conceded just 63 shots inside the box all season, the lowest of any team so are assigned the highest rating for shots inside the box. Each category rating is then summed up to give a rating for each team. I then grouped ratings into 5 groups to make it easier to digest.

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Season) - Same as above but for all games over the season instead.

5. Total - The sum of the 3 ratings.

Process of Elimination

You can use the viz in anyway you want, but I think the best way in mind to establish a shortlist is to work by elimination. Here's my thought process, yours may differ.

First Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record for the season.

• Exclude Marshall, Stekelenberg, Ruddy, Westwood, Guzan, Speroni, McGregor, Begovic.

Second Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record over the last 6 games.

• Exclude Krul, Myhill

Third Round: Elimiante all teams with poor upcoming fixtures.

• Exclude Szczesny, Pantillimon, Mignolet, Vorm, Gazzaniga

The Shortlist:

• Cech, Howard, De Gea, Lloris, Jaaskelainen.

From there your decision comes down to your time preferences (Jaaskelainen's best fixtures only come after a Man Utd and Arsenal back-to-back), other defenders you already own (if you have Terry you might pass on Cech) and of course the budget you have available.

If you disagree with any of these criteria then let me know! I'm open to change the ratings if you can convince me.

Form Player Rater - Who Have Been the Top Performers Over the Last 6 Gameweeks?

I thought I'd have quick look at the Player Rater model which only includes data from the last 6 gameweeks. The graphics haven't got as many options as usual, and they show totals rather than adjusting for appearances/minutes.

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At the very top and Suarez is a clear run away, he isn't just in a purple patch, the model is expecting him to score just under a goal every game. Aguero is his closest rival, but still some way off. There's no sign of Ramsey's form stopping, he is ranked 3rd from the last 6GWs. Lukaku just edges Rooney, which is something to consider given Rooney's suspension this week.

In midfield, Coutinho, Hazard and Ozil are the clear elite midfielders of choice. Mirallas looks an excellent mid-price option, as does Lallana. While Downing and Shelvey top the cheap midfield options. The best budget option is Redmond, and by some margin.

Yaya Toure, Gerrard, Brunt, Navas, Nasri and Morrison lead a list of players who have scored well, but do not quite have the stats to back it, be very wary of bringing in any of these options off the back of recent points scoring. On the converse the Tottenham duo of Townsend and Paulinho continue to underperform their stats, I suspect this is a problem with the model and will seek to improve it so it doesn't rate the likes of Townsend's long range shots so highly. Downing has also been unlucky to not have more points given his stats and I have no problem backing him as a good pick up.

There's few attacking defensive options, but Walker's 2 assists have not been unjustified given his stats, while Evra, Vertonghen and Debuchy have been typically attack minded. Zabaleta's points returns are less backed up by his underlying stats though.

Finally, there are 3 huge surprises thrown up by the model: Crouch, Ameobi and Berbatov. All 3 rank above Giroud, Remy and even Negredo for attacking stats over the last 6 gameweeks, but get any of them for your team at your own peril!

Player Rater GW14 Update

Updated graphics can be found here.

Where to start, there's an awful lot to discuss (after I lamented on Monday there wasn't much going on!), but unfortunately I don't have time to cover everything. There were some huge scorers this week, and triple digit FPL scores were common. Suarez, Hazard, Aguero, Ramsey, Ozil and Coutinho all had incredible games in terms of attacking involvement. In terms of differentials, Berbatov seemed a new man following the departure of Jol, and Rodriguez gave use yet another option to consider from a great Southampton side. Shelvey had a brilliant gameweek, he has been highly rated by the player rater model (currently ranked 11th for midfielders when adjusted by appearances) but I've been reluctant to tip him, perhaps I should trust the model more.

Going back again to my midfield differential article, and 3 of the top picks have flopped, Fer has been disappointing, Ward-Prowse was withdrawn early after starting and Tonev has played 20minutes in the last 2 games. Redmond did deliver an assist and is well worth considering until the January wildcard. The player I wanted to highlight most though is Downing, who was the top player in a poor West Ham team in Tuesday. He had a goal wrongly disallowed, created a number of chances, and also has a share of set-pieces. I warned again Ravel Morrison who now sits out the next game serving his suspension, if your looking for a West Ham midfielder at the moment then Downing is the best choice.

That's all for now, my closing remark is a quick tip to keep in mind GW16 fixtures when making transfers this week. Man City play Arsenal and Tottenham play Liverpool, and there is a big fixture swing with Arsenal and Liverpool facing a tough Christmas period, and fixtures easing considerably for Man United and Everton. Keep all that in mind with this weeks transfers!

Which European League Has The Most Shots on Target?

With so little fantasy debates to be had at the moment, with most decisions revolving around getting an XI who will start and some good bench options if needed, I decided to have a quick look at something a little different. To be honest, I mainly just wanted to test out the new box and whisker plots that are available in the new version of tableau 8.1.

I decided to use data from WhoScored and look at attacking stats from the top 5 leagues in Europe (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) and since we all know the importance of shots on target as an indicator of attacking performance I choose to look at this.

Learn About Tableau

A quick explanation for the uninitiated (or those who have erased their memories of high school maths), each column is a league, and each data point is a team from within that league, along the y-axis we have Shots on Target per Game. The box and whisker plot itself is made up of 5 points, the minimum which marks the lowest of the group (in this case each league) and the maximum marking the highest. The median is also marked, which is the midpoint of the data, and the 'box' is constructed from the lower quartile to the upper quartile, such that 50% of the data is within the box. This is very useful for seeing the distribution of teams within a league and for comparing leagues. Graphically, the different points marked are:

Comments on the Box Plot

I don't want to indulge in a huge piece of analysis, and would rather you make up your own mind about what can be taken from the graphic, but here's a few comments:

• The Bundesliga has the highest median shots on target with 4.9. So an average game would see 9.8 shots on target, with an expected number of goals of over 3 per game. Does this make the Bundesliga the best league? Well, we cannot answer that, but it may be the most exciting league if you believe more goals leads to a more exciting game.
• Real Madrid are likely to score the most goals across the top 5 leagues, while Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester City and PSG top the charts in their respective leagues. No surprises here, apart from the fact that Bayern don't top the Bundesliga, their impressive record can be attributed to their defensive strength however.
• Sunderland are the worst attacking team, and by some way. According to my model they might be lucky to score 30 this season in the league, on current form at least. Cardiff, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Hull don't fare much better with only 2.8 shots on target per game. These 5 teams are worse than any team across the 5 leagues with the exception of Ajaccio. The belief that the English league has strength in depth certainly doesn't hold on the offensive side of the game.
• La Liga is positively skewed more than any other league, which we'd expect with 3 brilliant teams in Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. This is at least in part to the way TV revenue is distributed in the Spanish league. Serie A is similarly skewed, but if we remove Juventus' supreme attack we actually see a cluster of good but not great attacking teams.
• The Bundesliga is also positively skewed by the presence of 3 stand out teams. It's certainly true that there is greater parity in the Bundesliga once you remove these teams though, at least from an attacking standpoint.
• The Premier League seems to be the most evenly distributed league, there are no run away teams and no teams falling far behind. There is also no cluster in the middle like we see with the Bundesliga, or towards the bottom as La Liga shows. Again, TV revenues likely play a part here, with the distribution of them being much more even across all teams than in other leagues. Does this mean the Premier League is more competitive? I'll leave that one open to debate.

If this post proves popular there's a few stats that throw up interesting box and whisker plots. There's some interesting stuff on the defensive end as well.

Update to the Player Rater Model

Also, there's a slight change to the expected points table. In selecting teams you now make your selections and click 'Apply' to apply that filter. This should be a lot quicker when you want to select or deselect a group of teams as you no longer have to wait for the viz to update with every single selection made.

Player Rater GW13 Update

Just a quick update today due to the midweek games this week. A reminder here that the deadline is 19:30 on Tuesday 3rd Dec.

The updated graphics can be found here.

Comments Using the Player Rater Expected Points Model

One of the early criticisms of the model was that it rated Deulofeu very highly, well after Saturday's performance it was probably right to. The on-loan Barcelona forward put in a stunning display of his talents, with 5 shots, 3 on target and 1 created chance that led to an assist. It's too early to say he's a fantasy option but he belongs on the 'monitor' list.

The Suarez and Aguero strikeforce finally failed this week, but we can't expect returns from them every week. Suarez managed 5 shots and Aguero 6, no other player managed more shots so strap down those jerky knees! Aguero had an astonishing 18 penalty box touches, so don't consider the Aguero>Negredo move yet.

The ever consistent Rooney scored twice at White Hart Lane and is quickly becoming the standout 3rd forward of choice, it makes for an expensive front-line though, so Remy and Lukaku are great alternatives. Rooney moves into 3rd place in the Expected Attacking Points per Appearance table. Ozil repaid those that showed faith in him with 2 assists and Ramsey continued his form with another 2 goals. Fantasy favourite and blog favourite Seamus Coleman scored his 2nd of the season and is now the top point scoring Everton defender, followers of the model will not be surprised to see him score again. Aside from this group there was little fantasy action of note, with many points coming from unlikely sources such as Oviedo who filled in at LB for the injured Baines, and Hooper who may have to single handedly score all of Norwich's goals this season.

Review of Midfield Differentials

In the interests of accountability I thought I'd look at how the midfield differentials I tipped in my popular article last week performed in this weekends games. The success of the suggestions cannot be judged over one game, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how each got on:

• Leroy Fer (3), Nathan Redmond (3) - A disappointing attacking performance from Fer was a shame, but 3 pointers is not too be sniffed at with the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Coutinho returning less. Redmond was much more impressive with 3 shots and 1 on target. If you can stomach rotation when Snodgrass and Pilkington return then Redmond is a nice and cheap option.
• Ward-Prowse (2) - A quiet performance before being withdrawn on 62 minutes. He now has 2 home games, which I highlighted as the games in which he carries more threat.
• Downing (6) - This is more like it, an assist this week is representative of what you can expect from Downing, 3 shots and 4 chances created show his involvement in West Ham's attack.
• Tonev (1) - The return of Agbonlahor and Weimann saw Tonev drop to the bench, only making a 20 minute bench appearance where his only action of note was a long range effort on target. Villa are struggling for goals at the moment and that might see Lambert mix up his attackers, whether that includes Tonev remains to be seen.
• Walters (1), Adams (1) - Away at Goodison Park was always going to be a tough game, so don't read much into the two poor performances of these two this weekend. Walters did manager a shot on target from within the box, but that was it.
• Barkley (0), Morrison (4), Januzaj (0). Barkley and Januzaj didn't make an appearance this week and that should signal that anyone holding them should look to sell. Morrison was benched as well, but made an impressive impact creating 3 chances in just 14 minute, including an assist for Joe Cole's goal after practically walking through a dejected Fulham defence.

I also overlooked Sissoko who occupies a similar space in the model to Downing, he scored a wordly this week and is a reliable option. Cabaye still provides more threat as coverage for the Newcastle midfield that has somehow sneaked in 6th place.

Under the Radar: In Form Midfield Differentials

Seeing as the forward slots are pretty much a no brainer at the moment (select Aguero and Suarez, then one from Rooney, Remy, Giroud, Lukaku or even Sturridge, Negredo or Lambert) I thought I'd have another look at midfield options, in particular focusing on a couple of names who could prove worthy differentials. I've looked at players who are in form (only considering the last 4 GWs), cheap, and have very low ownership (under 1%).

Below is a graphic of the Player Rater model, but only looking at data from the last 4 GWs. Players must have played in 3 games to qualify, and carry at least some goal and assist threat. I then have a more detailed look at some select names.

Learn About Tableau

Leroy Fer

I gave a mention to Fer a couple of weeks ago, but never expected two goals in two games! He has gone completely under the radar but his performances the last 4 GWs are worthy of note. This one caught me a bit by surprise but on every criteria I looked at Leroy Fer's name kept popping up. Here's a quick summary of Fer's potential:

• Nailed on - over a tricky winter fixture list with much rotation it helps to have someone reliable in your teams, at least to guarantee you 2 points every week. Fer has played every game and every minute of every game, they don't come more nailed on.
• Solid Stats - his stats aren't incredible, let's not get carried away, but they are reliable and consistent. More importantly they have been improving the last few weeks which suggests he is either settling in, or changing his role within the team.
• Better at Home - He's averaging 2.6 shots and 2 key passes per game at home, but only 0.8 shots and 0.5 key passes away (source: WhoScored). It might be a negative that his away performances haven't been so strong, but if your looking to rotate him with another midfielder it's nice to know his best performances have been in home games, so there's less worry that your going to miss his points because you bench him for away games.
• Favourable fixtures - Norwich probably have the most favourable fixtures over the next 6 GWs. Only an away game against Liverpool is cause for concern, with home games versus Palace, Swansea and Fulham around away trips to WBA and Sunderland there is potential for Norwich to pick up points and turn their season around. Fer is likely to be play a crucial part in this.

This is a stats blog afterall, so I best look at some data for Fer. Squawka  provides a good look at his shot data, we see his accuracy of 60% is good, as we know shots on target matter. This high accuracy is likely due to taking most of his shots from within the box, which is another encouraging sign. He isn't the most creative player, with only 13 key passes all season (just over 1 a game), but Squawka again shows us these chances are being created in central positions, suggesting they should be converted at a higher rate.

So there you have it, my hot tip at the moment is Leroy Fer, and with a home game against Palace next, what better time to bring him in? He's not going to pull up trees, but he guarantees you 2 points every game and could contribute a couple of goals and assists over the winter period.

If your short on cash, or feel Fer is a little overpriced (which is a fair comment) then Redmond is another option. With Snodgrass and Pilkington out for the medium term he looks nailed on and could provide a good differential against Barkley or Morrison.

Ward-Prowse

Southampton's fixtures would be enough to put anyone off buying their players at the moment, but in James Ward-Prowse there's a midfielder that comes in very cheap and offers a strong mix of starts, attacking threat and even set-pieces. JWP carries almost no goal threat, with just 2 shots in 4 games, but has tremendous assist potential, ranking only 2nd to Nasri over the last 4GWs. These chances are coming from either the right, or just outside the box, as shown on Squawka, he's created 24 chances this season, with 14 of those coming in the last 4. 117 touches in the final third put him second only to Lallana for involvement in Southamptons attack.

The worry here is that Pochettino could rest him for a run like he did Gameweeks 4-8 without much rhyme or reason, but seeing as we can't predict that we can only assume he's set to continue his recent run of starts. He's another who performs best in home games, so pairing him with someone who rotates with Southampton (Norwich do, hint hint!) could prove a good strategy.

Downing

Another big surprise is Stewart Downing who is providing a good goal and assist threat, on par with Mirallas and even Oscar over the last few weeks, which is surprising given those two players big points returns last week. His goal threat is particular surprising, with 8 shots and 3 on target matching Oscar exactly over the last 4 GWs. His 20 touches in the penalty box better Oscar by 1 as well!

Downing starts have been much less reliable and he is a definite rotation risk. However he is probably West Ham's best player on current form (which isn't saying much) and offers a good route to the Hammers kind fixtures of Fulham, Palace and Sunderland in the next 4. Playing out wide without a recognised striker in the team has allowed Downing the opportunity to run at the defence, and make runs in behind.

There's no doubting that Downing's main threat is his creativity, creating 20 chances so far this season, most of which from crosses at the byline. Without Carroll in the team these crosses are probably going to waste, but with results going against him, Allardyce may start one of Petric or Cole upfront as a striker this weekend and target Fulham's shaky defence.

Tonev

After being a preseason 5th midfielder favourite Tonev has proved frustrating for his owners, but has started the 3 of the previous 4 and could be set for a run in the team. This one is a huge risk (not least for starts), but playing in behind the striker he offers good attacking potential in a team with another kind run of winter fixtures. Benteke's production has slowed surprisingly quickly since his injury and there's few other options.

He had 3 shots, all on target, in the Monday night Birmingham derby, unfortunately all were from range and not central, as can be seen on StatsZone and his shot accuracy over the season has been poor. Regardless of the quality of shot, he comes with a very enticing 4.3m price tag, but it'd take some balls to take a punt on him.

Bacuna has earned plaudits for his freekicks, but beyond set-pieces I don't think he offers enough to be considered, without a single shot on goal in his last match. Has also been playing at RWB, which should be enough to put you off at the moment.

Walters

By now you probably think I'm mad, and your probably right. But former fantasy favourite Walters still offers security of starts, some goal threat and is still likely on penalties. With Arnautovic out this week he could start in behind the striker, and while away at Everton is a tough fixture he has averaged 1.7 shots and 1 key pass per game in all away games this season.

He's also been played out wide right this season, and with Everton having no obvious replacement for Baines, Mark Hughes could look to exploit that area. Walters has created 9 chances this season, 3 from the right, and 5 within the penalty box.

Charlie Adams is an alternative, and the former fantasy hot shot does have some credentials, again his security of starts is a big enough worry to not consider him.

The Bad

I wanted to give a quick highlight to some cheap midfield options that might be worth avoiding. Ross
Barkley only just makes it on to the charts, having had jut 1 shot on target and created 1 chance in the last 4 games his early season form has completely disappeared. This weeks fixture is followed by tough matches against Man Utd. and Arsenal, so I wouldn't be looking to bring in Barkley any time soon.

Another popular option that is also struggling is Ravel Morrison who actually ranks behind Scott Parker in the player rater model! There is no doubting his abilities and potential, but past point scoring is perhaps not indicative of future points scoring in this case. Just 2 shots on target and 1 chance created suggests his suitors may be disappointed.

Januzaj has similar low involvement, just 3 touches in the penalty box in the last 4 games is disappointing and suggests he isn't worth holding given his rotation risk which will become increasingly frustrating over the winter period. In his favour he has had 72 touches which is impressive, but his actions with the ball suggest points aren't likely to come his way. If you caught his price rises then now is probably a good time to cash in.

Conclusion

There you go, five options who are completely off the radar but may well pick up points soon. The only player among them I would seriously recommend targeting at the moment is Leroy Fer though. Don't expect big returns, but if you want some reliability and at least a small chance of points than he is a good option at the moment.